From a sports betting perspective, everything that happens in sports has additional context. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and more, the sports news cycle will continue to have a major impact on the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz files, featuring contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and more, are designed to keep fans informed on the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Jan. 18: Kansas City Chiefs’ coverage issues may not matter in playoffs
Doug Greenberg: For more than half of the 2024 regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs haven't looked like the juggernaut they were expected to be to back-to-back Super Bowl titles: The Chiefs have won nearly every game, but haven't finished with a win. The way that convinces people wins.
Kansas City went 4-9 in draws from Weeks 1 to 14, including a seven-game ATS losing streak from Weeks 8 to 14. The team has won eight games without a tie, the most in the Super Bowl era. According to ESPN research.
Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era to maintain a straight-line winning record (35-24) in games his team does not cover (at least five games); closely followed by greatness Roger Staubach (32-33).
The Chiefs entered the NFL Divisional Round as a nine-point favorite against the visiting Houston Texans, an intriguing number because KC hasn't covered such a wide spread all season: The Chiefs' record when paving the way is 7 -0 SU, but 0-7 ATS has scored at least six points this season, the longest streak in the Super Bowl era.
However, despite a poor regular season performance ATS, Kansas City was going from strength to strength in the betting markets, with the game opening with consensus odds of -7.5 on the Chiefs, but by Saturday morning, all major sportsbooks ’s odds have all reached at least -8.5, with ESPN BET rising to -9.5.
Sportsbooks report 68.2% of money backing KC spreads compared to 57.3% on tickets, with other major books similarly reporting positive handle allocations in favor of the Chiefs. FanDuel's trade team said the early action was "surprisingly" more divisive than expected, but the book will still be "rocking for the Texans."
There is some logic behind money. Besides Kansas City (7-10), only one playoff team maintains an ATS losing record in the regular season - the Texans, who also have a record of 7-10.
The Chiefs' championship pedigree may also play a role in attracting big money. KC has tied the game in six straight postseason games since 2022, tied for the fifth-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. The teams that win it all in 2022 will have just as bad ATS in the regular season.
Mahomes always seems to improve his performance in the postseason, and his 13-5 ATS record ranks third among quarterbacks with at least 10 playoff starts since 1966; only Jim Pooh has the best. Jim Plunkett (8-2) and Eli Manning (9-3) are better.
Travis Kelce also improved in January, averaging more receiving yards per game in the postseason compared to the regular season every year since 2020. He has surpassed receiving yards in 13 consecutive postseason games and was set at 49.5 on Saturday (minus-135 on ESPN BET, the most he has ever posted in a season during that stretch). The lowest level in post-season play.
Essentially, even though the Chiefs struggled throughout the regular season, the betting public is ready to get behind them as the postseason approaches.
"It's the same old song and dance for the NFL," BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said via email. "Sportsbooks need underdogs to cover and hope one of the dogs can Complete victory, thereby breaking the even profit margin.”
another master
At ESPN BET, the Chiefs moneyline is the second most popular pick among parlay bets, behind only the Detroit Lions moneyline.
Detroit begins its quest to take home the franchise's elusive first Super Bowl when it takes on the red-hot Washington Commanders on Saturday night. As of Saturday morning, the Lions were an 8.5-point favorite on ESPN BET and had plenty of support across the betting market.
Between the explosive offense and Detroit's poor defense, sportsbooks and bettors are anticipating fireworks as the over/under for this game is 55.5 points (it was 54.5 at the opening), the first since Super Bowl LV The highest total of any playoff game since (2020) between the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That's nothing new for a Lions team that has played the NFL's five-highest total of games this season, including Saturday's game; the previous four games were tied 2-2. flat.
Jan. 14: Bettors fade away from Ohio State as CFP title race tilts towards Notre Dame
David Purdum: The odds on the College Football Playoff National Championship Game dropped earlier this week, with sportsbooks reporting huge bonuses for underdog Notre Dame.
Ohio State opened the tournament as a 9.5-point favorite on Jan. 10 with a 9.5-point win over the Fighting Irish, the largest margin in a championship game in the BCS/CFP era. Some bettors thought Notre Dame's odds were too big and placed bets early, causing sportsbooks to drop the odds to Ohio State -8.
"There's no news driving this move, just a big bet that narrowed the odds from 9.5 to 8.5," Caesars Sportsbook's Joey Feazel told ESPN. "So far, we've had It's surprising to see a steady stream of action from Notre Dame because we've seen Ohio State invest a lot in the game and the future since Ohio State's win over Tennessee."
John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said his store received a bet on Notre Dame +9.5 (-105) from a "very well-respected customer" on Sunday.
"The whole market went down at the same time," Murray said.
The line dropped to -7.5 for Ohio State on Monday, but has since moved back to the consensus -8. Feizer said sharp bettors were also betting on the Buckeyes ahead of their semifinal game against Texas.
"Sensitive people think Ohio State's numbers are overly inflated in the market," Feizer said. "I would expect that line to probably drop a little bit closer to 7."
Jan. 12: Bills beat Ravens as favorites in battle of "NFL's two best teams"
David Purdum: In ESPN's database, only three NFL playoff games in the Super Bowl era ended with a single draft pick. Next week's divisional round in Buffalo has a chance to be the fourth round.
The Buffalo Bills started the week with a one-point lead over the Baltimore Ravens at home, but the team has seen a lot of volatility. The Bills opened as high as -2, but the line bottomed out before falling back to -1 on Sunday night. ESPN BET's hotline shifted to the Ravens -1 on Monday morning, but the Bills remain the favorite among other books.
The last playoff game was a wild-card matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles in 2019, with the latter losing by one point.
"Our initial bet on Ravens +2 from Louisiana was $21,000, but on all games today, Joey Feazel, a football oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN on Sunday Bets will be restricted until the end."
Some oddsmakers have the Ravens ahead of the Bills in the power rankings. Baltimore's Super Bowl odds are +475 on ESPN BET, which is lower than Buffalo's odds (+500).
"We think they're the two best teams in the NFL," said John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. "Baltimore is the higher level, which is why they only have one point on the road. Buffalo is where we do have home field advantage."
According to ESPN research, the Bills have been favored for 42 consecutive home games, the longest such streak in the NFL. They haven't been a home disadvantage since Week 17 of 2020 against the Miami Dolphins.
In another AFC divisional playoff game, the Kansas City Chiefs opened with a 7.5-point lead over the Houston Texans, but the score quickly swung to Chiefs -8.5
Ahead of Sunday's primetime game between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the home team is coming off a 4-0 straight win.