Now, who is the favorite of the NL East Pete Alonso Has it been re-signed with the Mets, and all the heavy lifting seems to be done among the three heavyweights in the department?
I set out to find consensus answers to the question to seek advice from MLB scouts and executives.
The more people I talk to, the less clarity I find.
I ended up extending my poll to include seven people, none of whom have any affiliation with the Mets, the Atlanta Braves or the Philadelphia Phillies, and everyone says they can easily come up with more than one team as a winner case.
Finally, when the prediction is pressed, the statistics are like this: Philadelphia 3, Brave 2, Mets 2.
Perhaps most notably, besides the total number of votes, almost everyone points out that the playoffs in recent years have shown that winning the division is not as important as October’s health and heat, even wildcards team.
As one team executive said: “The Phillies and the Mets are everything you need to know because that’s how to perform well and ride the horse dynamic at the end of the year, the playoff format is now. The Phillies are in The (district champion) Braves were eliminated in a few back-to-back years, and then the Mets brought out the (district champion) Phillies last year.
“Ideally, you want to be one of the first two divisions winners and avoid the wildcard series, but last year you’re looking at the Mets – they’re the perfect example of a team that’s going forward with confidence.
"So, for me, it's more of the Braves, the Mets and the Phillies are playoff teams. The bigger question might be whether any of them can beat the (Los Angeles) Dodgers."
fair enough.
But let's not get rid of the fun completely. We need someone we like, right?
The biggest thing I have received about human polls is that it differs from the predictions of the most famous statistical analysis system, Fangraphs and Pecota (baseball prospectus). They both predict that the Brave will rebound from the injured 2024 season to win the division, although the gap is significantly different.
The Fanggraphs have a brave favorite, and they are expected to have a 93.4 victory forecast, compared to the Phillies at 87.4 and the Mets at 86.7.
Meanwhile, Pecota played close-up between the Braves and the Mets, with the Braves (92 wins), followed by the Mets (91) and the Philadelphia (87.9).
It should be noted, however, that both Fanggraphs and Pecota put all three teams into the playoffs, just like last year.
Nevertheless, the obvious question is why analytical systems benefit the brave.
Based on the answers I got from the baseball guys, it has something to do with predicting better health after losing a star in Atlanta Spencer strode and Ronald Acuna For this season and other key players, e.g. Austin Riley,,,,, Ozzie Albiesand Michael Harris A lot of time.
"Logic says the brave should be healthier-I get it," one scout chose the Phillies to win the department. “But I don’t think you can rule out the lingering effects of Strider (elbow surgery) and Acuna (knee surgery). Acuna now has ACLs on both knees, so who knows. Don’t forget ((Chris) Sale There is no playoffs due to everything that happened with his arm, and I think they need to protect him more.
“And, their offseason is not good. The biggest explosion (For the Yankees) It was a big loss for them. They will miss (AJ) Minter (For the Mets). and(Travis) Arnaud (To Los Angeles Angels) has brought some big blows to them. Their only large transfer is Jurckon Profar. So, I can't just think they'll be a 95-win team. ”
On the other hand, a scout who did choose the Brave explained this:
"Even if injured, I think it's just a weird year for them, like the law of average chases them or something. Even without Strider, they get good pitches, but they just don't hit. They're still Having the best roster in the department, even if Fried is a big loss and they know how to win, their pitches are deep.
“I hope they can hit the ball again and win a close game with the Mets and the Phillies.”
OK, so the brave gets an advantage from both evaluators and data projection.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia nodded from the human vote, which is now. It was also their trade left-handed after a rather quiet winter Jesus Luzado From Miami Marlins and signed Jordan Romano (performed from arthroscopic elbow surgery) became the new anchor of the bullpen, which made them fail NLDS 3-1.
“They don’t have to do much,” said an executive who picked Phillies. “Last year, they had a buzz with the Mets. They still have a very good lineup with those who hit them in the clutch in the past few years and they have the best start in the division.
"Don't sleep in Luzado. He's always inconsistent, but he has great stuff. Spin him with someone like this (Zack) Wheeler(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Aaron) Noraand there are others who I can see that he benefits from. If Romano is healthy, it is a great addition to their bullpen. I think they are often in the mid-90s. ”
Added a scout, he also chose the Phillies:
"I just think they have very few question marks, it's three teams up to the bottom. They're a senior team, they know who they are and they're confident. The Mets' losses have to shock them. I saw them go there and there is something to prove this year.”
Finally, opinions on the metropolis are different, mainly based on their starting and rotating state, with obvious uncertainty: Kodai Senga From the loss of a year Frankie Mont Hopefully find your own form for the second whole season after shoulder surgery a few years ago, Clay Sherlock Holmes Transition from relief to starter David Peterson Hope to build a breakthrough season (although his total 121 innings is high in his career).
Roman pets It seems that the most certain bet is the closest thing, but even he must prove that he can maintain success after putting down his arm angle to imitate Chris Sales And dominate the second half of the season.
"I like their team, but honestly, I'm not sure how to do the rotation," said one scout. "They're better offensively. ((Juan) Soto He should have a big effect like he did with the Yankees, and I think it's important to bring back it back (Pitt) Alonsoat least in the short term.
“And I love the depth they create with their pens. As long as he is healthy (hip surgery), Minter has been winning a lot in his courageous courage.
"But, are they enough to start pitching to outsize the Phillies and the Braves? No one except Manaea threw a lot of innings last year. They might have had to do six-player spins just to keep the total and give Senga extra rest, Then you will stretch the depth. It might work for them, but you are talking about a lot of IFs."
Others expressed similar concerns, but both of the Mets selected expressed their belief in rotation David Stearns' decision making.
"He has proven he can evaluate pitching," one executive said. "He did it in Milwaukee, and he did it with the Mets last year. I've heard about (good news from pitching coaches) Jeremy) Hener The same is true. Look, David is still associated with Milwaukee. He had to hear some good news about the changes Montas made after he was traded to the winemaker last year to bear this type of dollar (two years, $34 million).
“As a starter, a group of teams from Holmes competed. He was a big and strong guy with elite stuff that should be able to build himself and succeed in the rotation. Plus, Peterson was their unsung hero last year. I think under the radar, how good he was for them and then got a lot from the bullpen in the playoffs, and I think he would build on that.
"They also have a certain depth, they're in the process of developing the farm system, and I think they're ready to trade for the arm before the deadline. So I love their pitching. When you add Soto and bring back Alonso, I'm Think the Mets were built to win 95 games. In a competitive position like that, it should be enough to win the game.”
All in all, these opinions do differ, but the consensus between the Scouts and executives is that NL East should be the toughest split in baseball. Indeed, despite the major rebuilding of the Marlins before them, several noted that the Washington Nationals had the young talent to move towards the .500 and became a disgusting team.
But it's mostly about the quality of the Metropolitan, the Brave and the Phillies.
As one scout said, "This is indeed a wild beast of a division. It's likely a three-team wire game."