Members of the Bank of England’s interest rate setting committee warn that higher-than-expected inflation and growth data should not distract policymakers rather than continue to cut borrowing costs.
Alan Taylor, one of two members of the Monetary Policy Committee, called for a 0.5 percentage point reduction last month, said he said while he doesn't want to predict future votes, he believes the recent economic data is led by one-off factors.
"I won't announce the vote first, but I think I'm showing in my objection that I think we need to be on a lower (monetary) policy path," Taylor told the Financial Times in the Financial Times.
The latest data show that inflation in the UK was higher than expected in April, jumping 3.5% from 2.6% in March, almost a percentage point above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
But most of the rise reflects increased water fees, energy costs and council taxes. "(The inflation rate is higher) does not come from demand and supply pressures; in most cases, this is caused by one-time taxes and managing price movements," Taylor said.
"The (BOE) forecast path says there will be inflation and then it will disappear," he said.
Although the UK economy grew 0.7% in the first quarter, marking the fastest growth of the year, economists say this is largely the result of increasingly high business investments by companies rushing to beat Donald Trump’s tariffs. Taylor said he is still "very worried" about the prospect.
Taylor, one of two of the nine MPCs, voted for a 0.5% reduction in interest rates earlier this month, eventually lowering it by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%. Two members voted 4.5%.
He said his concerns about the outlook are due to “storing more risks in the downside due to global development.” Taylor said this includes the ripple effect of the U.S. presidential trade war.
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"The trade war will have a negative impact on growth," Taylor said. While the Labor government has signed three trade agreements with the EU, India and us in recent weeks, Taylor said the UK "is not back to where we were before."
"The impact of these other things may be welcome in some sectors, but I think we need to focus on the big shock. We have changed a lot in trade policy; we have a lot of uncertainty: I'm going to focus on this big story," he said.