When Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ) entered government 25 years ago, it shocked Europe. Belgium has taken punitive measures, canceling diplomatic visits and even suggesting the EU could do without the Alpine country.

At that time the far-right party was only a junior coalition partner. This time, the Liberal Party - nativist, anti-immigration and fiercely critical of the EU - dominates. Its leader, Herbert Kickl, is expected to become Austria's next chancellor.

What's more, under what looks like its first far-right government since World War II, Vienna will join a growing bloc of destructive, Moscow-friendly member states at the heart of Europe .

If Kickel does become prime minister, he will join a group of like-minded leaders including Hungary's Viktor Orban, whom he hails as a role model, Slovakia's Robert Fico and, following October's elections, the Czech Republic's Andrei Babis.

As a measure of how far the far right has grown in the EU, the response from Brussels and other capitals has therefore been little more than a shrug. "We have to face it, don't we?" said a diplomat from a large member state. "This is the new normal."

The Freedom Party, which came first in September's election with 29% of the vote, is negotiating with the center-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) to form the party after talks broke down between the Austrian People's Party, the center-left Socialist Party and the liberal Neos. The government negotiates.

While the exact outcome remains uncertain, a deal looks increasingly likely as polls suggest the alternative of early elections would give far-right parties a higher share of the vote, as much as 39%.

Austria's caretaker Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg rushed to Brussels to reassure EU leaders, including European Council President Antonio Costa and Parliament President Roberta Mesora, that they had nothing to worry about.

Schallenberg, the country's foreign minister and a senior figure in the Austrian People's Party, pledged that Austria would "remain a reliable, strong and constructive partner within the EU" and said the EU should "trust" Austria's democratic institutions.

He said EU red lines such as the rule of law, judicial independence, fundamental rights and respect for international law would not be discussed with the Liberals and would be guaranteed in any coalition deal, along with support for Ukraine.

How far this will continue remains to be seen. The Liberal Party's radical European election plan, "Stop the Madness in the EU," does not advocate "exit" but calls for sweeping reforms and an end to "red tape" and "political excesses" in Brussels.

The party calls for an immediate halt to immigration, a suspension of Austria's asylum system and the deportation of all asylum seekers, which would violate EU law. The title of his election manifesto was: "Austria's Fortress, Freedom's Fortress".

It calls for "immigration", cuts in corporate taxes and wage costs, and an end to EU sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine - despite the party's "cooperation" with Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in 2016 Agreement” to keep your distance.

Some analysts believe that if Kicker does become prime minister, his wildest instincts will necessarily be constrained by a strict coalition agreement with the ÖVP, and in any case he will be busy dealing with other issues, mainly budgetary ones.

Mujtaba Rahman of consultancy Eurasia Group predicts that if he does lead a new government, the outspoken Kikr "will be more focused on budget consolidation, welfare reform and domestic culture wars than on a bitter fight with the EU ".

Others, however, question how far the ÖVP will go to constrain him. In previous coalitions with far-right parties as junior partners, the Austrian People's Party "has a history of tolerating the Freedom Party's attacks on democracy," said political scientist Gabriela Greilinger.

Graylinger, a far-right expert at the University of Georgia, said that as a junior coalition partner, the party was "unable to defend liberal democratic principles against far-right partners who continue to undermine social norms."

Some also point out that if Kickel is not checked by his centre-right partners, he could be more difficult to deal with within the EU than the ever-obstructive Orban, who has been more or less on the sidelines largely by withholding EU funds. aside.

However, unlike Hungary, Austria pays more into the EU than it would cost to leave the bloc, so it may not be suitable for a deal approach. "Kickel would probably agree," said a diplomat from southern Europe. "Or he might go rogue. The truth is, no one knows."

If Kickel, Orban and their fellow spoilers join forces, EU policies - especially those that require unanimous consent - could be affected. Support for Ukraine, the EU's new asylum system and the Green Deal, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, could all be targeted.

Far-right parties currently lead the governments of Italy, Hungary and Slovakia and are members of or support coalitions in the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden and Croatia. In addition to Austria, they are also heading towards Romania, the Czech Republic and France.

Even so, Rahman said, “anti-EU governments in the European Council will still be far short of the obstructive minority needed to seriously disrupt EU decision-making.” However, all eyes are on whether center-right parties are ready to strike a deal with the right.

In parliament, the European People's Party - whose members include the European People's Party but also Germany's Christian Democrats and Poland's Civic Platform, both of which are facing strong challenges from the far right this year - has been criticized for courting far-right votes. Be criticized.

It aligned itself with the ECR's national conservatives in several votes, including Giorgia Meloni's Italian Brotherhood and Poland's Law and Justice party. The ECR has expressed its willingness to cooperate with the new far-right European Patriot group.

In general, the group is more radical and includes Orbán's Fidesz, the French National Rally, Geert Wilders's Freedom Party, La Voe España and the Freedom Party. "They will fight back forcefully," one diplomat said. "Things can get pretty difficult."