JPM CEO Jamie Dimon warned that after investors withdrew their “liberation day” losses, he believed that the amount of “complacency” in the market was underlined that the risk of higher inflation and even the risk of bucks was still higher than one thought.
“The market fell 10%, it grew 10%," he said. “I think it’s an extraordinary complacency.”
The boss of the largest U.S. bank has discussed how he thinks about cryptocurrencies during JPMorgan’s annual Investor Day event in Manhattan, from President Trump’s tariffs and the U.S. economic conditions to the future of the banking industry and his views on cryptocurrencies during JPMorgan’s annual Investor Day event in Manhattan.
On one subject, Dimon gave no firm answer: when he was planning to retire as CEO.
When asked why he won't stay for another ten years, he did remind investors that he planned to be executive chairman of the JPMorgan Chase board for some time after he stepped down as CEO.
"Obviously, it depends on the board. If I were here for four years, maybe two more years, three were executive directors. That was a long time. It was like the present value of the world."
The 69-year-old first suggested that his time as JPMorgan’s boss ended at last year’s Investor Day event, when he admitted that he might leave his role in “less than five years.” Last January, he said his "basic case" would last several years.
"The intention is the same as we said last year," he said Monday when an analyst imposed a more specific timeline.
His comments point out even more when discussing the macroeconomic topic. He believes that the full effect of the Trump administration's tariffs is not obvious yet, and that responsibilities are "very extreme" even at the current level.
When his team negotiated a trade deal, President Trump suspended many higher responsibilities in countries around the world, including China, but the benchmark reciprocity tariffs all reached 10% across the board, except for responsibilities specific to certain industries.
Trade poses great risks, he said, noting that the chances of rising and stagnation of inflation are higher than one might think. He added that the odds of the trap (recession with higher inflation) were "probably twice".
Geopolitical risks are also a problem. "It's very, very high. The way it's going to behave in the next few years. We don't know," Dimon said.
He wasn't the only big bank boss on Monday about new warnings about imminent impacts on tariffs.
"Uncertainty remains" said Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup (C), in a blog post.
"Companies are suspending decisions, delaying capital expenditures and sticking to hiring. Many are preparing for second- and third-order effects, from demand shocks to supplier uncertainty," she added.
“We are entering a new phase of globalization – a phase less defined by cooperation, but more defined by strategic self-interest. Long-term assumptions are being challenged not only because of tariff announcements, but also to be deeply impacted by confidence. Recent impacts have been felt and the long-term trajectory is being re-written in real time.”
JPMorgan does offer a sign that some customers may slow down in the current quarter.
It told investors that investment banks are expected to be less expensive in the second quarter compared to last year’s second quarter, “the mid-teens may be minus”, according to the co-CEO of commercial and investment bank Troy Rohrbaugh. Investment bankers rely on companies to make revenue to make deals.
Rohrbaugh added that transaction revenue is estimated to be in “high units.”
The bank does retain its full-year forecast of its key loan income, net interest income. It still expects $90 billion and receives an additional $4.5 billion from the deal, depending on market conditions.
“The outlook may be much better than revenue in the first quarter,” Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said earlier in the day, noting that recent events “are slightly worsening but not sufficient to guarantee the guidance changes.”
Dimon also spent some time on Monday to limit many of the banking rules set by Washington, saying broadly: “As many of these calculations I mentioned earlier are entirely asinine.”
Who will lead JPMorgan Chase with Dimon, who has held the role since 2006, has been a question of what has been one of Wall Street's great speculation games for years. It is also the "biggest trait risk factor" for JPMorgan stock, Bank of America analysts wrote last week.
Investors also had the opportunity to hear from Dimon's top lieutenant, several of whom were considered the most likely to inherit his day's internal bank.
"Our Polaris is producing Alpha," said Mary Erdoes, head of asset and wealth management. "That's what we're going to do. All day. We're obsessed with every basis point."
The bank also increased its technology spending by $1 billion, from last year to $18 billion.
"We are a growth franchise and we have a wide share of the business as a whole. We are not bragging, but we are proud of this performance," said Marianne Lake, CEO of JPMorgan's sprawling consumer bank.
Lake said her banking division, besides her home loan division, expects a 10% reduction in employee numbers over the next four and a half years, given the improvement in AI and other technologies.
David Hollerith is a senior journalist at Yahoo Finance, covering other areas in the banking industry, cryptocurrency and other areas.
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