The world will soon be unable to release its control over coal.

"Nothing can destroy coal," U.S. President Donald Trump said at the recent World Economic Forum. "Not the weather, not the bomb."

U.S. coal exports have been steadily rising to meet global demand for the world’s dirtiest fossil fuels, even as its domestic consumption drops.

Most importantly, global energy monitor data showed on February 6 that global coal production capacity reached a new record of nearly 2,175 GW in 2024.

Dorothy Mei, project manager at Global Energy Monitoring Plant, said: “The global shift from coal to coal remains challenging, largely due to rising demand in Asia, even in Europe and the United States. Consumption dropped sharply.”

The International Energy Agency predicts that global coal demand is expected to violate another new record-breaking height of 8.77 billion tons in 2024 and will remain at a similar level until 2027.

China recently reported that its coal imports soared 14.4%, reaching a record 2024 record of 542.7 million tons, compared with 474.42 million tons the previous year.

The latest IEA data shows that the world's second largest economy is also the world's largest coal consumer, accounting for more than 56% of global demand in 2023.

Mei said China's record-breaking coal storage strategy was primarily prepared for the country's potential power shortage caused by extreme weather events.

Data from energy think tank Energy shows that hydropower, wind and solar energy account for 30% of China's electricity mix in 2023. Mei added that when hydropower production drops due to insufficient rainfall, the Chinese government usually relies on coal to ensure energy security.

"In addition, another major obstacle is not the availability of renewable energy infrastructure, but the difficulty of generating electricity across provinces," she said. Management has fully developed throughout the country.

In India, extreme heat caused by climate-induced cooling energy demand soared and clean energy is not built fast enough to meet the country's growing electricity demand.

According to analyst CNBC, India's focus on economic and infrastructure development has also promoted consumption of cement and steel, which are heavily dependent on coal.

Demand for steel in South Asian countries will grow 8-9% in 2025, surpassing other economies due to picking up steel-intensive construction in the infrastructure and residential sectors, according to consulting firm Crisil.

Until December last year, India expanded its directive by operating all imported coal power plants until February 28.

But that's not to say that India has been ignoring its renewable energy targets. The country has set an ambitious goal to meet 50% of its electricity demand by 2030 through renewable energy. It has made progress. Renewable energy accounts for more than 46.3% of the country's power generation capacity as of October last year, according to the new and renewable energy ministry of India.

Global Energy Guardians noted that other top countries are building new coal-fired power plants outside India and China are Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam.

For more than a decade last year, Vietnam is expected to surpass Taiwan as the world's fifth largest importer of coal.

Data from the country's Ministry of Energy and Minerals resources show that Indonesia's coal production rose to 831 million tons last year.

According to Ember Energy, the Philippines' electricity portfolio's coal share surpassed China in 2023, becoming the country that relies on coal most on Southeast Asia.

“When coal is so cheap, there is little point to using energy efficiently,” said Dave Jones, an electricity analyst at Energy Think Tank Ember Energy.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, strong coal demand in Asia has also been partly due to invasions from many major hot coal importers such as China, India and Vietnam, and partly due to the results of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Astris Advisory Japan KK The subsequent gasoline price is high, said Ian Roper, a commodity strategist.

The IEA said global electricity consumption is expected to continue to rise in 2025.

"The world needs more energy, and now it needs it," said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Turtle Capital. “To make the global economy grow, it needs effective, cost-effective and reliable sources of energy supply,” he told CNBC.

Artificial intelligence has also accelerated the world's demand for energy. Reports show that global data center-driven electricity demand will also extend demand for coal.

"The United States, China and the world are striving for AI advantages," said Tim Winter, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. He explained that AI data centers are huge users of power, so it is difficult to retire reliable and affordable energy sources such as coal," he explained. ).

A Moody's Rating report shows that by 2030, the data center's electricity demand could exceed 35 GW, more than double the 17 GW recorded in 2022.

As global electricity demand increases, other industry observers begin to reverberate the IEA forecast for coal demand.

“When demand for oil, gas, coal continues to reach record highs, there is no transition,” said Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Nininepoint Partners.

In the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the government agreed to limit global heating to below 2 degrees Celsius and strive to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

Others are less pessimistic, although they recognize the challenges of achieving these goals in a timely manner.

Roper said the ongoing assurance of renewable energy, and the looming surge in global liquefied natural gas supply, could ensure that coal imports continue to weaken in certain coal competitive markets.

Furthermore, if countries promise to triple renewable energy by 2030, coal may start to drop meaningfully over the decade.