Arthur Hayes is a well-known figure in Bitcoin’s early days, co-founded in 2014 with the near-shore Bitmex exchange when he ran for U.S. regulators. Hayes recently pleaded guilty to the failure to impose sufficient control of money laundering and accepted probation and paid a fine, but earlier this year he received full pardon from President Donald Trump. Today, his focus is on managing the fund Maelstrom, run by his family, but Hayes remains a far-reaching figure in the world of digital assets. wealth Freelancer Anna Tutova caught up with him on the sidelines of Token2049 in Dubai, where his views on current market trends have shared his views, including forecasting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 in the near term, while Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by 2028.
In the Q&A, Hayes can also dig into the markets of Ethereum and Alt-Coins and explains his surprise 20% allocated to gold. He also made some horrible warnings about irritating U.S. debt. (Edited interviews for brevity and clarity).
Anna: You have described the recent U.S. Treasury lending move as a slight hand. Why?
Hayes explained that the Treasury has been scattering its “checking account” (Treasury General Account or TGA) and mined “extraordinary measures” (projects not subject to funds) to bypass lending limits, causing TGA to drop from $750 billion this quarter to $450 billion. He noted that this is $300 billion without new debt, which means effective borrowing is far beyond the official figures.
"Because we are in a period of debt ceilings. So the U.S. government can't borrow more money. There are many ways they can spend money and still keep the debt ceiling under the debt ceiling."
What impact does it have on Bitcoin?
“I believe the U.S. government has to borrow more money, so (Treasury Secretary) Bessent will have to issue more debt, so he needs to find a way for these people to get as much leverage as possible through the banking system, ultimately, because the U.S. government has more money on things.
So it's about what the repo means, and what I think it's posit to be active in market liquidity, which is why I think Bitcoin will bottom out on April 9 and will continue much more as the government continues to borrow money and the role of bessent, and Bessent will do something necessary to ensure they're funding at affordable prices. ”
So, what point should Bitcoin reach so that the ALT season begins? What are the factors that start the ALT season?
“I think Bitcoin needs to be more than $110k, and the increase is $20 million. I think that sometimes starts in the summer or the third quarter and then spins start to various altcoins.”
Do you think it's like a small handful of altcoins, or will it be like it when you see the crazy Alt Seasons Super Cyce in 2021?
“I don't think this will be the case in 2021, and every coin will rise 100 times. We'll have a new narrative where people will try to trade, and it'll trade some crazy prices, but there's no moving old Dino coins in your portfolio that probably won't be for some reason. I think a lot of coins have FDV, low buoys, no customers, no revenue, just some CEX listings, down 95%, and I really don't know why these should be done well in the next cycle. ”
So, in this market, what are your returns, what are your price targets, and what returns do you usually target?
“They need to beat the return of Bitcoin. So if we are going to deploy capital, it needs to beat Bitcoin.transparent
What are your expectations for Trump’s policy?
“I think they will do active work on crypto. That doesn’t mean your specific project will be valuable. It doesn’t mean they will do it on a timeline that makes sense to you.
I think people have very high expectations and they think cryptocurrencies are the first thing Trump needs to pay attention to. You know, Trump is a politician and he has a lot of things he has to pay attention to, so I think people need to be patient. ”
Furthermore, during this uncertainty in the market, we have seen gold rise a lot. So, are you investing in gold or are you purely in cryptocurrencies?
“I’ve owned gold for a long time, so I have physical gold in the vault. Given the massive uptick in gold prices, I think I think that many gold mining stocks are still undervalued. I think gold can come from here because the central bank is buying gold.
And I still believe that the United States will reassess its gold holdings much higher to depreciate the gold dollar. So I think when we finish this rally, gold could be $10,000-$20,000. ”
So, how many percentages in your portfolio are gold?
"Maybe like 20%.
That's a lot! There is also a lot of discussion about Ethereum and Solana. Which one will perform better?
“I think Ethereum has a better performance prospect, mainly because it’s very annoying, and everyone thinks Ethereum is doing nothing, they’re not doing anything right, but it still has the most TVL, it still has the most developers, it’s still the safest Stake Blockain Blockchain. Yes, from 2020 to the current moment, the price hasn’t been done well yet.
Solana obviously did a great job from $7 to $172. But if I'm going to deploy the fresh statutory capital department into that system, I think Ethereum can outperform Solana in the next 18-24 month bull run. ”
you Predictions were made before The Bitcoin will be traded for $1 million. When will it happen?
“I think Bitcoin will be about $1 million in 2028 by the end of President Trump’s presidency.
Anna: Can you tell me what the next step in Crypto this year?
Arthur: Therefore, I think Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise. I think Bitcoin will be close to $200,000 in the next small run. Then there is Altcoin season and we'll see something interesting. By the end of the year, the price target of Bitcoin is about $250,000.
This story originally appeared on fortune.com