April sees mixed freight trends on the road recovery

April is a mixed bag, with freight rates increasing year-on-year, but cargo volumes increase pressure. Both datasets have seen improvements since March, but the outlook remains blurry.

Since March, CASS's cargo index has increased by 0.4% in April (seasonal adjustment increased by 0.3%), but has fallen by 3.6%/year. The decline in Y/Y is the smallest this year. The last positive reading is January 2023.

The goods index compared with the two-year stacking was 7.5%.

April 2025
and/and
2 years
mm
m/m (SA)goodsexpenditureTL Linehaul Index

Operators recently pointed out that some shippers took the goods ahead of schedule in the first quarter, while others took the stock treatment approach. Rapidly changing trade policies undermine normal seasonal freight flows this quarter and announce additional questions over the final duration of an already effective freight recession.

Most carriers respond by rolling up or completely suspending revenue guidance in the full-year 2025 outlook. Although uncertainty about demand remains headwind, operators’ response is to expand the cost savings and equipment utilization plans already in place.

"The trade war has had multiple effects on freight volumes and could drop significantly in international sales in May and June, but could rebound in the third quarter due to the last 90-day U.S./China trade deal," the CASS report said. "At the same time, while retailers will start to run out of these retailers soon, U.S. consumers are still buying items that have pushed up before."

Landstar System (NASDAQ:LSTR) is the last trucking provider to report first-quarter results. The freight broker said on Tuesday that truck tow loads tend to be less than normal seasonal in April, but revenue per load is slightly higher than historical sequential trends. However, it concluded that the second quarter is unlikely to produce a normal seasonal boost.

CASS reports that if normal seasonality occurs in May, the cargo index will decrease by 1% per year.

Sonar: Quantity index accepted by contract load 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The amount accepted by the contract load Index measure The amount accepted by the load is moved under the contract agreement. It does not include all rejected tenders. To learn more about sonar, click here.

To some extent, counterintuitively, interest rates are on an upward trend.

Truck load operators were able to capture low to mid-digit contract amounts in the first quarter, despite the confusing volume. Carrier failure and asset rationalization have limited capabilities.

Additionally, the carrier said shippers believe that the end of the three-year futures freight recession is not later, which is shaping decisions and generating an increase in interest rates among shippers to increase with good service to serve as good service providers.

<em></img>Sonar:<em> Outbound tender reject index for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)</em>. The outbound tender rejection index is the agent of truck capacity, showing the number of loads rejected by the operator. — Sonar: Outbound tender rejection index *2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)*. The outbound tender rejection index is the agent of truck capacity, showing the number of loads rejected by the carrier. *The current tender rejection performance outperforms the previous grade, but has not yet shown recovery.*

The CASS freight expenditure data set measures total freight expenditure, including fuel, increased 3.3% in April (2.2% increase in seasonal adjustments), and increased 1.2% y/y. This is the first Y/Y on the index since January 2023.

Diesel prices fell 11% in April (sequentially down 0.5%).

The decline in freight from increased spending means that the actual freight rate has risen by about 5% y/y, up 3% from March (a seasonally adjusted increase of 2%). The report said that the order change is caused by an increase in the LTL rate, while the order decline in the TL line rate is partially offset.

No less than Truck Carriers once again reported higher yields in the first quarter, as airlines in most countries remain focused on improving services and obtaining rates commensurate with the products offered.

The CASS TL Linehaul index tracks rates without fuel and surcharges, down 0.5% from March to April, but up 0.9% y/y. After a 3% decline last year, the data set increased y/y in each month in 2025 and fell 10% in 2023.

<em></img> Sonar: National Truck Index for 2025 (LineHaul-nil only)<em>(blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)</em>. NTIL is based on an average booked dry car load of 250,000 lanes. NTIL is the 7-day moving average of LineHaul spot rate that does not include fuel. In AY/y comparison, the field rate is slightly higher.</em> — Sonar: National Truck Index (LINEHAUL-NTIL only) *2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)*. NTIL is based on an average booked dry car load of 250,000 lanes. NTIL is the 7-day moving average of LineHaul spot rate that does not include fuel. When comparing AY/y, the spot rate is slightly higher.

The report noted a 15-year low for publicly traded TL operator margins in the first quarter, as smaller interest rate increases “still not be enough to broadly offset the cost headwind of carriers.”

"It has been 40 months since the first Y/y cargo volume for freight this week, and as the freight market declines more and more, the fleet is not particularly well catering to longer storms," the report said. "So it is important that spending has achieved a positive attitude for the first time in 28 months, but we do not recommend starting sailing from here."

The data used in the index comes from freight bills paid by CASS (NASDAQ:CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. CASS handles $36 billion in freight per year on behalf of customers.