With red flag fire weather warnings finally ending Friday morning, Southern California will receive its first rain of the winter, which should provide some welcome relief to the region's seemingly endless battle.

This week, more than 10,000 acres have been burned, including the Hughes Fire, which has burned since Wednesday near Castaic Lake north of Santa Clarita. By late Thursday, the Hughes Fire was 36% contained. The 23,400-acre Palisade Fire is 75% contained and the 14,000-acre Eaton Fire is 95% contained.

However, there are fears this weekend's rain will only provide temporary relief. A dry spell could return after this weekend - raising serious questions about whether dangerous fire weather could come sooner than later. One big problem: The Santa Ana wind season can last into February and March, and a weekend of insufficient rainfall, combined with weeks of dry winds and weather, would be a mismatch if achieved.

Southern California is in the throes of winter at the dawn of history—one for the record books, a collection of crumbling records collected since the late 19th century. And the region is rapidly running out of time to catch up with a severe rainfall deficit before the winter rainy season ends.

"We've never been that dry in this area before, not so deep into winter," said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego. "For Southern California, This is indeed extreme."

Southern California has been in a punishing weather regime since October, with not a single major storm sweeping the region. In January, the weather pattern worsened—the storm track southward from Seattle blocked "not just Southern California, but the entire West," Tardy said.

Tardy said brush became particularly flammable as seven separate Santa Ana wind events hit Southern California in January as dry air and vegetation created a dangerous combination of fire weather conditions. combination. Tardy said there have been a total of 15 Santa Ana incidents since November.

"Santa Ana winds are really pulling their moisture out of the atmosphere," Tardy said. "There's no ocean layer because it's blown out to sea. The desert has come to the coast."

Watch for the start of dry February

After this weekend's rain, the long-term outlook suggests that for Southern California, "we're likely to get back into a dry pattern," Tardy said.

This is the driest start to the water year that begins on October 1 in San Diego, Orange County, the Inland Empire as well as LAX, UCLA, Van Nuys, and , on records in places like Woodland Hills and Camarillo.

For other spots, it's the second driest start to the water year, including places like downtown Los Angeles, which has received just 0.16 inches of rain since Oct. 1. That's just 2.5 percent of the season average for downtown Los Angeles - 6.38 inches of rain. The average annual rainfall in the urban area is 14.25 inches.

The first real rain of winter

Rain this weekend is expected to bring a welcome respite from the final weeks of mostly unwelcome fire weather. Red flag warnings have been in place for some areas of Southern California for 15 of the past 18 days, and are set to end at 10 a.m. Friday.

The rain is expected to disrupt a record low for downtown Los Angeles, which has not seen more than a tenth of an inch of rain in a calendar day since May 5, when 0.13 inches fell. As of Friday As of Friday. , it has been 264 days since downtown Los Angeles received a tenth of its rain. This is the city's record - from February 25, 2008 to November 3, 2008, the previous mark was 253 consecutive days.

Forecasters are currently predicting heavy rain this weekend. Between Saturday and Monday, downtown Los Angeles, Long Beach and Santa Clarita could get three-fifths of an inch of rain, while Canoga Park and Fillmore could get more than half an inch and Thousand Oaks, two-fifths of an inch. rain.

Rainfall rates of 0.7 to 1 inch are possible in San Diego, Anaheim, Irvine, San Clemente, Riverside and Lake Elsinore. San Bernardino, Ontario, Temecula, Oceanside, Escondido and Mira Mesa could get 1 to 1.5 inches of rain.

"This is a tricky storm system," said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the Oxnard office that has plans for Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo. County forecasts released forecasts. The storm is being driven by a low pressure system emerging south from Canada and currently forecast to be positioned off the coast of Southern California.

If the low pressure system moves even a little further west, there could be more rainfall than expected. If it swings a little farther east, the storm could result in less rain than expected, Kittel said.

Periods of rain could begin as early as Saturday morning and last until Monday night. However, the highest chance for rain is Saturday night in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, Kittle said.

The greatest potential for rainfall will be Sunday and Monday in San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Thunderstorms and landslide risks

The rainfall most likely to fall will be of light intensity and spread out over many hours.

But there could be a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the region, which could happen at any time and could bring isolated, brief bursts of heavy rain at rates of up to half an inch per hour, Kittel said.

That's a large amount because it's the starting threshold for recently burned areas to develop debris flows, a type of harmful landslide that involves water rushing downhill quickly, picking up dirt, rocks, tree limbs and sometimes even Huge boulders.

According to Kittel, there may be several spots throughout the area to see these thunderstorms, Kittel said. The question is whether they happen to be in areas that have been recently burned.

Putting it all together, Kittle said, that means there's a 5 to 10 percent chance of movement during this weekend's storms in recently burned areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

There is also a moderate risk of small hail.

Snow levels may drop to elevations of 3,500 to 4,500 feet above sea level. 5 to 10 inches of snow is possible in the San Gabriel Mountains. Kittle said up to an inch of snow could fall on the Grapevine portion of Interstate 5, especially Sunday, which could cause delays on the highway.

Wrightwood and Big Bear Lake could get 8 to 12 inches of snow. That raises the prospect of authorities requiring motorists to install chains on their tires when driving into mountainous areas like Big Bear.