The author of this article is CEO of New America Think Tank and contributing editor of the Financial Times
For nearly two decades, China has adhered to the principle of "peaceful rise," a concept proposed by State Councilor and intellectual Zheng Bijian. It emphasizes China's desire to enhance its strength and prosperity by integrating into the international system without posing a threat to other countries.
The strategy was successful: China's GDP and global influence rose sharply from the 1990s to the mid-2010s. However, Xi Jinping changed course. Starting in 2017, he launched a strategy called "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy." Chinese diplomats have become more assertive in defending China's interests. In just a few years, the Chinese government has managed to eliminate much of the goodwill generated by years of peaceful rise.
In 2023, Xi Jinping gave in. But this aggressive advancement of Chinese interests has left the world worse off, created lasting distrust, and persuaded many of China’s partners to hedge their bets by strengthening ties with the United States.
Now, US President-elect Donald Trump and his merry band of tech giants are embracing their own brand of Wild West diplomacy, amplified by Silicon Valley hubris. It is marked by extreme self-confidence, a disregard for any rules, and a willingness to make deals with anyone, anywhere, as long as they further their immediate self-interest.
Trump himself lives in a world of self-ascribed superlatives, which is echoed in his new friends from California. Many who have relied on technological innovation to gain power and unimaginable wealth believe that the United States' advantage over other countries is as clear as the technology industry's advantage over the rest of the American economy. This is the future and they control it.
This attitude seems certain to be associated with frequent incidents and minor crises in other countries. However, based on China’s experience, the problem will not be anger one way or another, but the accumulation of rhetoric and actions that gradually seep into the domestic politics of other countries, thereby changing alliances in corresponding ways.
As Xi has discovered, Beijing’s belligerence and outright assertions of power have strengthened China hawks in the United States and the European Union and sown seeds of doubt among former China supporters. The long-term damage to relations between Washington and Beijing is the result not only of Trump’s actions during his final term but also of a profound shift in the views of former Obama officials entering the Biden administration, whose views build on many of Trump’s On top of anti-government views. -China policy.
In particular, the push for U.S. tech supremacy will embolden those in other countries already looking to challenge the control of big U.S. tech companies. The EU has been battling the power and influence of these companies for more than a decade. After Mehta refused to deploy artificial intelligence in the EU, the new Trump administration could force a showdown that would provide the necessary stimulus to create an integrated European technology and defense market.
In countries such as Mexico, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Indonesia, Washington’s constant push to open markets and improve trade terms that favor U.S. companies will alienate local businesses, even if current leaders are friendly to Trump. Homes and exporters.
The United States, like China in the Wolf Warrior era, will increasingly become known for violating and circumventing domestic and international rules. Demands that everyone else “pay” for U.S. military protection may look more like global extortion.
Emerging middle powers are now able to play a more independent role on the global stage than they were in the 20th century, and they are unwilling to become pawns in the U.S.-China competition. Instead, they will insist on safeguarding their national interests, just as Trump wants to put America first.
The George W. Bush administration eschewed international rules and procedures in favor of a “coalition of the willing.” Since then, Republican unilateralists have been followed by Democratic multilateralists who have spent years repairing the damage to U.S. global relationships and building new informal alliances and coalitions.
However, this cycle has eroded trust and confidence in the reliability of the United States as a partner and ally. Add to that a lot of arrogance and insult, and the damage from the next era of American wolf warrior diplomacy could be permanent.