AFC Championship Game Preview: Josh Allen and Bills try again to beat Chiefs

The Buffalo Bills have tried to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs three times this decade. They are 0-3.

At least the Bills don't have a history of four consecutive disappointing games in big playoff games.

The stage could easily be set for a great AFC Championship Game. In the corner are the Chiefs, who are chasing NFL history as they try to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The Dynasty continues to grow in strength and has entered the AFC Champions League for the seventh consecutive time.

The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, although they have been a Super Bowl contender the past few seasons. The Chiefs have stopped them three times. Buffalo lost to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game four years ago, failed miserably when leading with 13 seconds left in the divisional round three years ago, and last season they finally faced the Chiefs at home in the divisional round, that one. Lost.

This meeting should produce another exciting matchup. The outcome will change the legacies of both parties.

Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City

6:30 p.m. Eastern Time

The game will be televised on CBS and broadcast live on Paramount+.

The Chiefs are favored, but not by much. Kansas City is a 2-point favorite at BetMGM. While 58% of bets are on the Bills, the odds have gone from -1.5 on the Chiefs to -2. The first time the two teams met, the Bills won 31-20, and Buffalo's home odds were 2.5. The overall score for this game is 47.5.

Josh Allen and the Bills are on their way to finally overcoming the odds and making it to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dynasty still stand in their way. (Yahoo Sports/Amber Matsumoto)Josh Allen and the Bills are on their way to finally overcoming the odds and making it to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dynasty still stand in their way. (Yahoo Sports/Amber Matsumoto)

Josh Allen and the Bills are on their way to finally overcoming the odds and making it to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dynasty still stand in their way. (Yahoo Sports/Amber Matsumoto)

Starting in August, everyone understood that Travis Kelce was not going to be a regular season starter at age 35 and that he would be saved until the playoffs. Everyone looked surprised when this happened. Kelce had just one 100-yard game all season, a 117-yard performance against the Houston Texans in the divisional round. Looking like last year, Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season before racking up 355 yards and three touchdowns in the playoffs. Kelce had a quieter regular season in 2024, throwing for a career-low 823 yards and averaging a career-low 8.5 yards per catch. Before last season, Kelce averaged 10.6 yards per catch, and his season average had never dropped below 12.2 yards. The Chiefs understand his limitations, considering how little success tight ends his age have had. But based on what happened last week, it appears he still has plenty of time to mount another big playoff run.

Last week should have changed our view on the bill. Those who favor Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson as the NFL MVP have shaped the narrative that the Bills are an underperforming team led by Allen. Then the Bills beat the Ravens last week and Allen had a pretty quiet game. Allen passed for just 127 yards and rushed for 20 yards. He's not bad, it's just that the Bills have other ways to win. In fact, Allen is going to have a great performance to beat the Chiefs. When the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 11, he had 262 passing yards and 55 rushing yards. But the Bills are more than just Allen. The Bills' offense changed midway through last season when they promoted Joe Brady to offensive coordinator in an effort to increase the running game, and James Cook scored 16 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. They do a great job at this. The Bills aren't a great defensive team -- 12th in EPA allowed per game and 16th in success rate -- but they're good enough to keep teams in games. Buffalo held the Chiefs to 259 yards in the regular season. Contrary to what you may hear, the Bills are a very good all-around team. They may also need Allen to perform like an MVP in this game to take home the victory.

Obviously, the Chiefs just need a close game. Kansas City has won 16 straight games in a single game, an NFL record and a mathematical miracle. While it's a bit of luck to win so many close games in a row, there's a reason for it. There's so much pressure on the Chiefs, and they're more than capable of handling it. This gives them a huge advantage in big games. While the Bills have carried the baggage of playoff defeats over the past few seasons, Kansas City thrives when games are tight. The Chiefs need to stop Josh Allen from breaking up too many game-changing runs, and it would be ideal if Kansas City can continue to have a tough running game and get players like rookie receiver Xavier Vo It wouldn’t hurt to have some big plays from guys like West. But the Chiefs have a huge advantage in the intangibles of every game. That’s why every close game goes smoothly. The Bills better make sure the game doesn't end up being over.

The Bills might be the better team in this game. A lot of analytics (such as DVOA or EPA per game) will tell you this. Buffalo won the regular season game. But we’ve seen a lot of “better teams” lose to the Chiefs. Extrapolating the Chiefs' regular-season results to the playoffs is almost useless; last season showed that whatever flaws Kansas City displayed ultimately didn't matter. The Chiefs are just finding ways to win big games. So while it's logical to select the Bills to win the AFC Championship and advance to their first Super Bowl in 31 years, many well-intentioned and well-thought-out drafts against the Chiefs in the playoffs have yielded familiar results. Chiefs 23, Bills 17