After 15 months of unimaginable suffering, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will finally bring some relief to the 2.3 million Gazans who have been reduced to a living hell under Israeli siege and bombardment. It should also bring some closure to the Israeli hostages and their families who are suffering the most. This is a welcome and long overdue respite. But this is, at best, the beginning of the end.
The agreement was signed by Donald Trump. He backed up his rhetoric with pressure and ensured the war was suspended the day before he took office. His intervention appears to have succeeded in winning concessions from Israel and Hamas. However, this raises the question of why the United States could not have brokered an armistice earlier. The multi-phase deal builds on a proposal approved by President Joe Biden last May. But his government has never managed to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take the necessary steps, instead repeatedly blaming Hamas for the deadlock.
During that period, an additional 10,000 people were killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, bringing the death toll in the Gaza Strip to more than 46,000, Palestinian officials said. At least eight hostages and dozens of Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since May. Biden's failure to convince Netanyahu to curb the offensive will be a permanent stain on his political career.
It is now crucial for Trump, Qatar and Egypt to keep up the pressure on both sides. There is a big risk that Netanyahu honors the first six-week truce, which would have seen the release of 33 hostages, but refuses to move into the crucial second phase: an agreement on a permanent ceasefire, the release of the remaining hostages and the release of Israel Total military withdrawal. Only then can the rebuilding of the shattered landscape begin.
Serious development of a post-war plan for Gaza must begin immediately, something Netanyahu’s government has willfully ignored. Hamas, which launched a horrific attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 that killed nearly 1,200 people and ushered in the Year of the Holocaust, will not rule Gaza again. But Palestine needs a credible alternative, backed by the United States and its regional partners. Netanyahu and his far-right allies have long rejected a role in Gaza for the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank. Although extremists in the Israeli government are already trying, they must not be allowed to derail this process.
Trump's role will be crucial. His first term was unabashedly pro-Israel, which made Palestinians weaker and more marginalized. However, Trump has made clear that he wants to build on the Abraham Accords he brokered in 2020, which resulted in the United Arab Emirates and three other Arab countries normalizing relations with Israel. This would require pushing for a grand deal in which Saudi Arabia agrees to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, opening the door for other Arab and Muslim countries to follow suit. The U.S. president must convince Israel to take concrete steps to establish a Palestinian state—ultimately the only solution that will provide it with the security it has always desired.
Alternatively, Trump is indifferent to the Palestinians and gives the green light to Israel to expand its occupation of Palestinian lands, including the West Bank. This will only fuel more militant resistance to Israel and ensure endless conflict rather than peaceful coexistence.
While Israel's military is growing stronger, the Biden administration believes Hamas has recruited nearly as many new fighters as it lost during its Gaza offensive. Extremist ideologies cannot be defeated by military force alone. This can only be achieved by providing Palestinians with a just and peaceful alternative. Efforts to find such a solution should start today. A ceasefire would bring much-needed relief. But Israel and the region are still far from peace.