Just a few weeks ago, scientists warned "City Killer" Asteroid The chance of hitting the earth is very small. Thankfully ReviseEarth may have to worry about another object falling from heaven - a spacecraft from the 1970s called Kosmos 482.
Soviet-era spacecraft is expected to fall back to Earth soon.
It is too early to know how much half a ton of metal might fall or how much will survive where it is, according to space debris tracking experts.
Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek, a lecturer at the Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands, predicts that the failed spacecraft will re-enter around May 10. He estimated that if it was still intact, it would crash at 150 mph.
"While it's not without risks, we shouldn't be too worried," Lambroke said in an email.
The object is relatively small, even if it does not rupture, "the risk is similar to the risk of a random meteorite fall, and several of which occur every year. You take the greater risk of being hit by lightning throughout your life," he said.
He added that the chances of spacecraft are actually very small. "But it cannot be completely rejected."
Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told NPR that the spacecraft is "death plunging eventually."
"I hope it will have the usual one hundred thousand chances of hitting someone," McDowell wrote last month. "No major attention is needed, but you don't want it to beat you."
The Soviet Union launched the Kosmos 482 in 1972, one of a series of Venus missions. But it never stood out from Earth's orbit due to rocket failure.
Most people fell in a decade. However, Langbroek and others believe that over the past 53 years, the spherical object of the landing capsule itself (about 3 feet in diameter) has been hovering over highly elliptical orbits, gradually descending.
A spacecraft with a capacity of over 1,000 pounds will likely be able to re-enter. Langbroek said it was built to withstand the drop in carbon dioxide thickness through Venus.
Experts suspect that the parachute system will work in so many years. The heat shield can also be damaged after being on the track for so long.
McDowell said in an email that it would be better if the heat shield failed, which would cause the spacecraft to burn during atmospheric diving. But if the heat shield is in place, “it will be intact and you will have a half ton of metal object falling out of the sky.”
The spacecraft is 51.7 degrees north latitude, or anywhere from London and Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, almost all the way to the South American cape. But, since most of the earth is water, “the chances are good, it does end up going into some oceans,” Lambroke said.
Researchers warn Recent research.
The authors of the study said the likelihood of crashing planes is small, but the risk is rising due to the re-entry of space debris and the increase in flight.
The study found that high-density areas near major airports are 0.8% of the chances of uncontrolled rocket recovery each year, but the risk rises to 26% in "larger but still busy" airspace areas in the northeastern United States or major Asian cities.
"While the likelihood of a strike is low, the consequences can be disastrous," the researchers said in a study published in a scientific report.
In recent months, space debris has crashed back to Earth.
In February, fragments of SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets that exploded in the United States entered Poland's Earth's atmosphere. two Blocks from unidentified objects - Both measures about 5 feet x 3 feet - later found on the ground. Police said the objects could have come from SpaceX rockets.
On the eve of the previous year, fragments of metal were believed to be Rockets and fell into it Villages in Kenya.
March 2024, NASA faces lawsuit The family from a Florida home was hit by a piece of falling metal.
A month before that, the European Space Agency said a satellite (as many as adult male rhinos) did Uncontrolled return to Earthre-enter the atmosphere of the North Pacific between Alaska and Hawaii. Most satellites burned when they re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.