2025 Tony Awards Nominations Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal in “Othello” Photo: Julieta Cervantes

Tonys Commentary (Updated: April 30, 2025): The 62 theater professionals serving on the 2024–2025 Tony Awards Nominating Committee have been busy this season, attending every Broadway opening and meticulously tracking standout performances, eye-catching design, and memorable direction. Their notes will soon translate into nominations — recognizing the productions and artists that raised the bar, as well as those that may have fallen short. While the official nominations won’t be revealed until Thursday, May 1, anticipation is already building. So, who’s likely to score a coveted nod, and who might be left out? While nothing is guaranteed, we’ve assembled our predictions for the titles and talents most likely to make the cut.

One of the most intriguing storylines heading into this year’s Tonys is the potential for Kieran Culkin to make awards history. Having just earned an Emmy for his searing final-season turn in HBO’s “Succession” and an Oscar for his vulnerable, aching performance in “A Real Pain,” Culkin is now generating Tony buzz for his Broadway debut — and could be on track to complete the elusive Triple Crown of Acting (Emmy, Oscar, and Tony) in just 18 months. If he pulls it off, Culkin would break the record previously held by Paul Scofield, who achieved the feat over a span of seven years.

Another star turning heads this season is “Stranger Things” breakout Sadie Sink, who delivers a compelling performance in “John Proctor is the Villain,” a sharp, modern reimagining of “The Crucible” set in a rural Georgia high school. Sink’s nuanced portrayal of a student grappling with power, justice, and agency has struck a chord with audiences and critics alike. Her presence brings fresh energy and a new generation of theatergoers to Broadway, making her not only a viable contender for a Tony nomination but also a valuable figure for drawing national attention to the ceremony.

Also poised for a breakout is Justina Machado, whose powerhouse performance in “Real Women Have Curves: The Musical” has garnered early acclaim. Known for her work on “One Day at a Time,” Machado brings depth, warmth, and charisma to a role rooted in family, identity, and resilience. Based on Josefina López’s seminal play — which also inspired the 2002 HBO film — the musical follows Ana Garcia, a first-generation Mexican-American teenager dreaming beyond the confines of her family’s struggling sewing factory in East Los Angeles. When the women are faced with a make-or-break dress order, the story becomes a vibrant portrait of Latina womanhood, generational tension, and the pursuit of the American dream. With a predominantly Latino cast portraying stories rarely given center stage on Broadway, “Real Women Have Curves” could mark a major moment for Latino representation in American theater.

The nominations for the 78th Annual Tony Awards will be announced live on May 1, 2025, drawing a line under a season filled with bold debuts, thrilling revivals, and breakout stars. To be considered, shows must officially open by Sunday, April 27, 2025, and meet all eligibility requirements set by the Tony Awards Administration Committee.

This year also marks a grand return to a beloved venue. The 2025 Tony Awards ceremony will take place at the iconic Radio City Music Hall in New York City, bringing back the glitz and scale of ceremonies past. The live broadcast will air coast-to-coast on Sunday, June 8, 2025, from 8:00 to 11:00 PM ET / 5:00 to 8:00 PM PT on CBS, giving theater lovers nationwide a front-row seat to all the drama, emotion, and celebration.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)