Every awards body has been forced to grapple with the same debate this month: to continue with nominations and honors as planned to provide some focus and a sense of normalcy in the face of the Los Angeles wildfires. Or postpone and/or cancel their ceremonies out of respect for those who have lost so many in Los Angeles and to allow people to focus on the road to recovery.
Personally, I think there is merit on both sides of this debate. I went through the same debate when deciding whether to publish my 12th annual mathematical prediction of Oscar nominees or delay predicting the winner until a month later. Ultimately, I decided to follow the Academy's lead on this -- and if they move forward with Oscar season, so will I.
The predictions that follow are based on weighting key inputs from the awards season so far, giving greater weight to those that have done a better job predicting nominees in each category in the past. This not only provides a set of predicted nominees, but also a snapshot of the competition that won each category. Last year's model predicted 10/10 Best Picture nominees, but this year we may see more surprises. About mathematical predictions…
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best film
Image source: provided by A24 Starting from the top, fauvism, secret meetingand Anora is a lock and a serious threat to win the whole thing. Completely unknown Got a belated push from the Directors Guild and should join emilia perez, Dune: Part 2and evil In the top ten.
And then things get interesting, with five films falling into the gray area between 25% and 75%: You could easily look at any one of them's awards season resume. nickel boy, substance, Sing, September 5or real pain And make a compelling case that everyone should be favored in this lower stratum. It would be quite surprising to see any of them jump all the way to the Dolby stage, but for now, just hearing their names called Thursday morning is a major win.
!function(){"Use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data("datawrapper-height")){var e=document.querySelectorAll( "iframe");for(var t in a.data("datawrapper-height"))for(var r=0;rbest director
Photo credit: Rich Polk/GG2025/Penske Media via Getty Images Not surprisingly, the top three spots for Best Picture and Best Director are mathematically identical: fauvism (Brady Corbett), Anora (Sean Baker), and secret meeting (Edward Berger).
For others, all of their films have the merit of being nominated, but all of their paths to Oscars have pitfalls. Coralie Farget (substance), the frontrunner for the next set of names misses out on a Directors Guild nomination, and so on.
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Image source: A24 For the third consecutive category we have fauvism At the top of the list, this time is represented by starring contender Adrien Brody. But it's hard to see much of a difference between Brody and Ralph Fiennes (secret meeting), for those trying to hinder the January-March game.
At the bottom of the list, you don't see a duplicate: Sebastian Stan (apprentice, a different person) not one but two movies could land him on this list. On its own, the odds are against it, so the odds of him becoming the first person in Oscar history to receive multiple Best Actor nominations in the same year are slim.
!function(){"Use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data("datawrapper-height")){var e=document.querySelectorAll( "iframe");for(var t in a.data("datawrapper-height"))for(var r=0;rbest actress
Image source: Courtesy of Neon/Everett Collection At first glance, this looks like an exciting two-way match between Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (substance). But there's still a way to tell an incredible late power story: Fernanda TorresI'm still here) broke that streak by winning a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama Series, and while she doesn't currently have enough other honors to rank higher, a Golden Globe honor is a strong first step. With only four candidates with over 50% nominations being nominated, it feels like that last spot could come from anywhere on the list.
!function(){"Use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data("datawrapper-height")){var e=document.querySelectorAll( "iframe");for(var t in a.data("datawrapper-height"))for(var r=0;rBest Supporting Actor
Image source: earchlight Pictures / Courtesy of Everett Collection Kieran Culkin (real pain) got off to a strong start this awards season, sweeping the major nominations and ultimately winning a Golden Globe. If anyone is going to derail his momentum, it might be Edward Norton (Completely unknown), Yura Borisov (Anora), or Guy Pearce (fauvism).
And Jeremy Strong (apprentice), Clarence McLean (Sing) and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) seemed the most likely fifth nominee, and the Screen Actors Guild surprised everyone when it chose Jonathan Bailey (evil).
!function(){"Use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data("datawrapper-height")){var e=document.querySelectorAll( "iframe");for(var t in a.data("datawrapper-height"))for(var r=0;rBest Supporting Actress
Photo credit: Shanna Besson/Page 114 - WHY NOT MADE - PATHÉ FILMS - FRANCE 2 CINÉMA © 2024 emilia perez There's a chance you'll be dual-nominated in at least two categories (Supporting Actress and Original Song). As for supporting actresses, Zoe Saldaña is a lock, while Selena Gomez will need a little luck. Other strong contenders here are Ariana Grande (evil) and Isabella Rossellini (secret meeting).
Some may be surprised that Felicity Jones' character in "Felicity Jones" ranks lower. fauvismBut the model was passed over for not receiving recognition from the Screen Actors Guild or Critics' Choice Awards, potentially opening the door for someone else to take her place on the Oscar list.
!function(){"Use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data("datawrapper-height")){var e=document.querySelectorAll( "iframe");for(var t in a.data("datawrapper-height"))for(var r=0;rBest Original Screenplay
Image source: Courtesy of Neon/Everett Collection We have two awards season style comedies (i.e. comedies that still deal with serious themes) at the top, Anora and real pain. closely followed by fauvism and substance.
In my opinion, this is the most difficult of the major categories to predict the full list of nominees. challenger is a very weak leader at only 35%. patella Made the list with a BAFTA award (although almost no one else) recognizing their work. cruel truth Although the early nomination announcement was hugely disappointing, it was still a popular choice. If you're going to make a prediction here, pick your favorite script and hope for the best.
!function(){"Use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data("datawrapper-height")){var e=document.querySelectorAll( "iframe");for(var t in a.data("datawrapper-height"))for(var r=0;rBest Adapted Screenplay
Image source: Focus Features/Courtesy of Everett Collection The category's model often has the advantage of relying on the USC Screenwriting Award, which serves as a bellwether for best adapted screenplay. But this year, the screenwriting nominations were delayed until less than 24 hours before the Oscar nominations were announced, and after this article went to press.
In the absence of that data point, the remaining input points to the Ballon d'Or winner secret meeting As the front runner, closely followed by nickel boy, emilia perezand Sing. but Completely unknown, Dune: Part 2and evil Not lagging behind at all.
Reasonable people may have different opinions on whether awards season in Los Angeles should proceed immediately. But here’s the thing, so Thursday morning we’ll find out who’s still in the game.
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