The NFL Divisional Round kicks off with a bang, as the top seeds from the AFC and NFC will compete on Saturday.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will begin their quest for a third straight Super Bowl title against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. to start a new day.
Fresh off a bye after defeating the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 to win the NFC North and secure the division's top seed, the Detroit Lions will face rookie Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders.
We break down both games and provide handicaps, props, picks, trends, and more to help you prepare for any betting opportunity.
Current odds as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET
The NFL Divisional Round begins Saturday when the two-time defending champion Chiefs (15-2, 7-10 ATS) host the Texans (11-7, 8-10 ATS) at GEHA Stadium. Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
The AFC's top-seeded Chiefs had a bye last week, while the Texans were upset by the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round. The two teams have met twice before in the playoffs, with the Chiefs winning both times.
Kansas City has endured multiple close calls this season, winning all 10 games decided by seven points or less. The Chiefs are 7-0 this season when they score at least six points, but are 0-7 ATS. They opened Saturday's game as a 7.5-point favorite and now hold an 8-point lead.
Led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans won the AFC South title for the second consecutive season, intercepting Justin Herbert four times in the wild-card round en route to a 32-12 win. A convincing victory.
The Texans are looking for their first consecutive playoff victory, while the Chiefs begin their quest to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
Saturday's game will air on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ at 4:30 p.m. ET.
game line
0:30
Trailer: Texans vs. Chiefs
The Houston Texans will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday at 4:30 pm ET on ESPN/ABC.
spread: Chiefs -8 (Starting Chiefs -7.5)
Money line: Chiefs -450, Texans +340
Large and small plates: 41.5 (opening 42.5)
Interest rate spread in the first half of the year: Chiefs -4.5 (-125), Ravens +4.5 (+102)
Chiefs points total: 24.5 (above -120/below -110)
Texans overall score: 16.5 (over -105/under -125)
Game Predictor (analyzed by ESPN): 63.6% chance of winning (increased by 4.6)
Player props
pass
Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (over -115/under -115)
Mahomes' total passing touchdowns: 1.5 (over -150/under +115)
CJ Stroud's total passing yards: 224.5 (above -120/below -110)
Stroud's total passing touchdowns: 1.5 (above +170/below -230)
rush
Joe Mixon total rushing yards: 59.5 (over +105/under -135)
Isiah Pacheco's total rushing yards: 44.5 (over -105/under -125)
Kareem Hunt’s total rushing yards: 34.5 (over +105/under -135)
Mahomes’ total rushing yards: 24.5 (above -115/below -115)
take over
Nico Collins total receiving yards: 79.5 (over -125/under -105)
Xavier Worthy’s total receiving yards: 49.5 (above -120/below -110)
Travis Kelce's total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -145/under +115)
Hollywood Brown's total receiving yards: 39.5 (above-1/52 below-105)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 34.5 (over -125/under -105)
John Mechi III's total receiving yards: 34.5 (over +105/under -135)
Andre Snellings' pick: Texans +8
0:46
How to Bet on the Texas Chiefs by Tyler Fulghum
Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes adding the Chiefs to NFL playoff previews and why he tends to be behind teams.
The Chiefs have played close games and won, but the games have generally been competitive, defensive ones. Of the Chiefs' 15 wins this season, only four have been by more than eight points. In these lopsided games, the losing teams have a combined record of 24-44. The Chiefs haven't covered that much ground all season; they're 7-0 this season, per ESPN Research, but are 0-7 when they score at least six points this season. . They are also coming off a multi-week hiatus and will have a bye in the wild-card round after having a bye in the starting lineup in Week 18.
The Texans were as sharp as they have been all season against the Chargers on Saturday. The Chiefs beat the Texans by 8 points against the Texans in Week 16 and should win, but to me, that's not a win for a team that seems to like to win on the last possession of almost every game. The gap is too big for the Chiefs.
Betting trends and more
Provided by ESPN Research
Kansas City is seeking eight straight postseason wins, which would be the third-longest streak in NFL history behind the New England Patriots from 2001-05 (10 games) and Green Bay from 1961-67 Packers (9 games).
The Chiefs are one win away from winning their seventh consecutive division title (which would be the second-longest streak since the merger in 1970, trailing only the Chiefs from 2011-18, who won eight in a row) .
Patrick Mahomes is seeking his 16th playoff win as a starting quarterback, which would tie him with Joe Montana for the second-most wins in NFL history, behind Tom Brady (35) .
Mahomes has a 6-0 record in the divisional round (the most games without a loss by a starting quarterback in any postseason in NFL history).
Mahomes is 4-1 against the Texans, including playoff games. In those games, he averaged over 280 passing yards per game and threw for 14 touchdowns with just one interception.
The Chiefs are 2-0 all-time against the Texans in the playoffs (30-0 win in the 2015 wild-card round and 51-31 in the 2019 divisional round after trailing 24-0 in the second quarter).
The Texans are 6-7 all-time in the postseason and have never won back-to-back postseason games (0-5 in the divisional round). They are the only team to never win a division title since the game's inception in 1970.
The Chiefs opened with a 7.5-point lead (currently at 8), but haven't been that wide all season. They are now 7-0 when scoring at least six points this season, but they are 0-7 in draws. It's the longest winning streak in the Super Bowl era that doesn't cover a six-point favorite, trailing only the 2020 Chiefs and 2006-09 Miami Dolphins (six games each).
The Chiefs are 15-2 on the season but just 7-10 against ties. The only team in the playoffs to lose a game in a tie is their rival Texans, who went into the wild-card round with an 8-10 record.
The Chiefs have won eight games without closing a deficit this season, tying them for the most in a single season in the Super Bowl era.
Saturday's divisional second-round game will feature an NFC matchup pitting the Lions (+275), who are currently favored to win the Super Bowl, against the Commanders (30-1), who are 4-13 in the NFC East. Bottom. In the first year of the Dan Quinn-Jaden Daniels era, the team went 12-5 and entered the conference round.
Last season, the Lions lost 31-34 to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and were one game away from the Super Bowl. The Commanders, meanwhile, ended the 2023 season with eight straight losses.
How things might change.
The Commanders (13-5, 12-6 ATS) ended the regular season with five straight wins and a wild-card victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The victory over the Buccaneers was Washington's sixth of the season in which the winning score came in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime.
Detroit (15-2, 12-5 ATS) lost two games all season (to the Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills) by a combined 10 points en route to its second consecutive NFC North title. The Lions have a productive offense that led the NFL in scoring during the regular season and outscored opponents by a league-high 222 points. They are the weekend favorites with 9.5 points against the Commanders.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit on Fox.
game line
0:37
How Fulgham supports Commanders in divisional round game against Lions
Tyler Fulghum explains why he's leading the Commanders to close the gap in the divisional round against the Lions.
spread: Lions -9.5 (Opening Lions -8.5)
Money line: Lion -600, Commander +400
Large and small plates: 55.5 (opening 53.5)
Interest rate spread in the first half of the year: Lions -6.5 (-105), Ravens +6.5 (-115)
Lions total score: 32.5 (above -120/below -110)
Commander’s total points: 22.5 (above -120/below -110)
Game Predictor (analyzed by ESPN): Lions have a 73% chance of winning (by 9)
Player props
pass
Jared Goff's total passing yards: 274.5 (over -105/under -125)
Goff's total passing touchdowns: 2.5 (over +145/under -190)
Jayden Daniels total passing yards: 224.5 (over -140/under +110)
Daniels' total passing touchdowns: 1.5 (over +105/under -132)
rush
Jameer Gibbs total rushing yards: 79.5 (over -135/under +105)
David Montgomery's total rushing yards: 49.5 (over +105/under -135)
Daniels’ total rushing yards: 49.5 (over -145/under +115)
Austin Ekeler total rushing yards: 24.5 (over +105/under -135)
take over
Amon-Ra St. Brown's total receiving yards: 79.5 (over -105/under -125)
Terry McLaurin's total receiving yards: 69.5 (above -110/below -120)
Jameson Williams total receiving yards: 59.5 (over +110/under -140)
Sam Laporta's total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -115/under -115)
Olamide Zaccheaus total receiving yards: 34.5 (over +100/under -130)
Demi Brown total receiving yards: 29.5 (above -115/below -115)
Zach Ertz total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -125/under -105)
Pamela Maldonado's pick: Commander +9.5
The Commanders, orchestrated by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, displayed grit and precision to win the game in a thrilling 23-20 victory over the Buccaneers. The Commanders have become masters of nail-biting this season, recording six wins when tied or trailing in the final seconds. Daniels' rapid development and Washington's uncanny ability to perform under pressure solidified the Commander's status as a dangerous underdog. The play-callers' drive and knack for clutch plays make them a compelling option to cover the passing game against a powerful Lions team. With their late game magic, they can make things interesting again.
Betting trends and more
Provided by ESPN Research
Jayden Daniels' 13 wins this season (including playoffs) are tied for the second-most by a rookie quarterback in NFL history, trailing only Ben Roethlisberger's 14 wins in 2004 .
The Commanders are looking to win multiple playoff games in a season for the first time since 1991, when they won three games en route to their last Super Bowl win.
The Lions have outscored their opponents by 222 points this season, the largest margin in the NFL this season.
The two teams have met three times in the playoffs (Washington is 3-0, with all three wins by at least 14 points); Washington has won two of the three playoff games between the two teams. Super Bowl champion.
The Commanders were tied for second-worst in the NFL last season. With Saturday's win over the Lions, they became just the fifth team since the merger in 1970 to win the division title after finishing last season with the league's second-worst record.
The current score line between the Commanders and Lions is 55.5, which would be the highest score in any postseason game between the Buccaneers and Chiefs (56) since Super Bowl LV (2020).