Roki Sasaki's free agency latest: Teams to beat, MLB comparisons

Happy Sasaki Ruju Week!

After declaring his intention to join MLB at the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the 23-year-old Japanese free agent immediately became the most coveted pitcher this winter due to his combination of talent and age, as well as his pitching parameters. contract.

With the 2025 international free agent signing period beginning on January 15 and Sasaki’s posting window closing on January 23, we could learn Sasaki’s whereabouts as soon as Wednesday.

Since Sasaki decided to join the majors before his 25th birthday, he was limited to a minor league contract, with a signing bonus coming from the team's international bonus pool (with a cap limit of just over $7.5 million). That makes the emerging ace the rare free agent star every team can sign.

As we wait for Sasaki's destination to come into focus, we asked MLB experts what makes him so good, which major league pitchers he reminds us of, and which teams are most likely to sign him.

UPDATE MONDAY: The San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have withdrawn from the race for Sasaki, according to multiple reports.

What makes Sasaki such a coveted free agent?

Bradford Doolittle: He's young, accomplished and has measurable tools that could make him the top prospect in baseball right now. But he's not a “if he hits his ceiling, maybe he'll be 'X'” prospect, but rather a guy who's already had success at a high level and can slide into the major league rotation. Currently, limited workload thresholds are the only real impediment to Sasaki's 2025 forecast. Given his record of complete team-controlled seasons, there's no risk involved in signing him. As good as he is now, he still has room to grow in his arsenal and physical attributes. You just don't get a combination of all the factors like this, especially with Sasaki so eager to make the jump that he's willing to make max revenue a secondary factor.

Buster Olney: As we saw with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto — and as we witness all the way with Alex Rodriguez — young excellence is everything. Sasaki is expected to be a talent at 23 years old, and the team that signs him will have years of control while paying him a relatively low fee.

Kiley McDaniel: One agent, describing to me a potential nine-figure deal for his client this winter, highlighted why he was confident he could make it happen even if he had a bad year, saying: “Age “The roster is getting younger, so teams have more money to spend, but don't want to offer older players long-term contracts, so they (usually) seek short-term free agency deals or trade control of players for a year or two. . This means that most teams will only accept long-term contracts if they can sign outstanding young stars who are still in their prime. (Like the Red Sox pursuing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto, extending Rafael Devers' contract, but not offering big money to any veteran players). Sasaki can achieve the entire peak of his true ace under team control at a price every team can afford: a true unicorn opportunity for all 30 teams.

David Schoenfeld: He's entering his age-23 season and it's no exaggeration to say he has the potential to be the best starter in baseball. In four years in Japan, he posted a 2.02 ERA and averaged 11.4 strikeouts per nine. He hit 102 mph and was 6-foot-3 and athletic. You could argue that he's right at the top of the Stephen Strasburg/Paul Skenes rankings as a pitching prospect, only that he's already dominated as a pro.

Which current or former MLB pitcher does he remind you of on the mound?

Schoenfeld: With his powerful fastball/pitch combo, I'm reminded of two former MLB greats: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. Of course, there are some similarities with Shohei Ohtani, though Ohtani has slowly reduced his splitter usage and isn't using it much in the 2022-23 season, instead using his sweeper more often. In Japan in 2024, Sasaki's pitch rate was as high as 57%, which ranked second in Major League Baseball, second only to Reds (now Yankees) reliever Fernando Cruz.

Doolittle: I don't know if there is one. The splitter kinda reminds me of the one Logan Gilbert throws, with the spin rate being so low it's a little weird to watch in slow motion. The simple, heavy, difficult stuff he delivers kind of reminds me of Kevin Brown, just with a different fastball. The most exciting thing about Sasaki is that it's hard to call him the next so-and-so. He's his own thing, and novelty is a great and rare thing in sports these days.

McDaniel: There's no perfect lineup, and Sasaki is still changing as a pitcher, so I'll point to some players with similar qualities. Hunter Green has a similar combination of arm speed and hype at the same age, as well as some questions about his fastball shape and breaking ball quality. Obviously, Sasaki, a standout ball-slipper, has many comparisons to former NPB pitchers, but only a few American-born players such as Clemens and Schilling. The overall package (powerful fastball, slider, and split-off offspeed pitches) is similar to Paul Skene's, although Sasaki's command and fourth and fifth pitches are areas he needs to address to have a chance to truly compete against Skene Sri Lanka. Major League Baseball debut.

Buster Olney: He reminds me of Yu Darvish with his size and range of motion. He looks capable of making adjustments as needed. Darvish is known for his ability to mimic other pitchers' pitches, and looking at Sasaki's movement, I wouldn't be surprised if he had the same talent.

Is there anyone concerned about how his game will transfer from Japan to Major League Baseball?

McDaniel: Sasaki's fastball shape and velocity declined last season, his slider velocity also declined further, he may need to add a fourth or even fifth pitch, and his execution in the strike zone may be a little better . These issues themselves are simple enough to be addressed in the first half of 2025, as long as Sasaki chooses a strong pitching development club (which I doubt he will). A few mechanical tweaks and mental cues can do a lot of the heavy lifting because these things are all related. I expect to see Sasaki's potential in 2025, and we'll have to wait until 2026 to see the first string of five or six consecutive starts.

Olney: We really need our colleague Eduardo Perez to step in here, because he's going to tell us if Sasaki did anything blatant, like pitch tilting. That’s what Yamamoto experienced during his first few months with the Dodgers. But it doesn't matter that Sasaki can have something so good. He seems to deliver the ball so well that even if the batter knows it's coming, it won't get hit.

Doolittle: Well, different balls mean we don't know exactly how his size will change on the pitch, but that's not the main issue. He looked great in the World Baseball Classic, which was a good preview of this adjustment. It's so durable. He never pitched many innings, his best pitches were split balls, and he struggled last season with Vero. These things would be more concerning if he was offered a contract like Yamamoto's, but he's not. I've seen him hit the 80s with a pitcher, and when you match that up with a moving triple-digit fastball and a + command record, health is the only thing to worry about.

Schoenfeld: As with every starter: health and durability. Back in 2022, he reached his peak in Japan with 20 starts and 129 innings. His fastball velocity dropped off as he missed time in 2024 with a torn oblique and shoulder fatigue. He also has to adapt to facing more power hitters than he did in Japan.

Are the Dodgers the team to beat as his decision approaches?

Doolittle: They always do.

McDaniel: They are the most likely landing spot and have been viewed that way for a while, but don't underestimate how little we truly know about Sasaki's process of weeding out and ultimately choosing a club. We have some clues and underlying tendencies, but don't know much yet.

Olney: Of course, because they seemingly used their bottomless pit of money to attract every player they wanted. The Dodgers will be the team to beat on and off the field for years.

Schoenfeld: I would say no. I bet Sasaki wants to carve out his own path and sign with a team that doesn't already have Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Which other teams do you think are most likely to land him?

McDaniel: The Padres, led by aggressive general manager AJ Preller, were considered the second-most likely landing spot behind the Dodgers, and San Diego clearly needed Sasaki more: He would change the entire team's outlook. Beyond that, we're guessing mostly from teams we know he's faced that seem to provide a good environment for Sasaki to develop and play meaningful games: Giants, Mariners, Mets, Yankees The Cubs, Cubs, and Rangers all seem to show up the most, but I can't even say it's a full slate of teams.

Doolittle: For me, the Mets stand out. Sasaki and his representatives have been fairly opaque in providing his thoughts, which has led to a lot of reading between the lines. It's very rare for a player of this caliber to be able to choose any team he wants with money barely being a consideration. So who knows? The Mets offer a great pitching environment, strong possibilities for continued competition, and an emerging pitching development program, highlighted by their establishment of a pitching lab in Port St. Lucie. Why become another Dodger?

Olney: It's clear that Sasaki isn't afraid to ignore conventional wisdom, just like Ohtani did when he arrived – he's giving up many, many tens of millions of dollars by working to get to the major leagues now instead of just waiting. With that in mind, I think the Padres would be the most attractive option outside of the Dodgers because of the weather, Darvish's presence, and the opportunity to play against the best players in the same division.

Schoenfeld: If Sasaki is primarily concerned about his development as a pitcher, where better to do it than Seattle? Unlike the Dodgers, the Mariners' young starters remain healthy. They're also playing in a great pitcher's park, they're playing on the West Coast, and it's not like Seattle has no chance of winning. But we haven’t heard much about the Mariners entering the campaign.