Is shooting from outside the box a dying football art?

Statistics, tactics and small screen fame

“I did a quick calculation,” said James Yorke, director of football at StatsBomb, one of the sport's leading data providers and analytics companies.

“After about 25 yards, the expected goals value for a shot is about 0.03, so about a third of all shots are successful. From 20 yards on, the goal value for a shot doubles, but it's still only 0.06.

“Even if it's a shot from 12 yards – you think, 'Oh, penalty spot, that's a great chance' – the probability of scoring is still one in six.

“Before you can talk about a 50-50 coin toss, you have to get into the six-yard box.

“It sounds crazy – your instinct is that the probability of scoring is greater than it actually is. With any shot, everyone overestimates the probability of scoring.

“But there’s a basic fact that getting closer turns something extremely uncommon into something relatively more frequent.

“The odds are not exponential, but the curve is stair-stepped.”

What Yorke describes – the expected goals model – is one of the most fundamental building blocks in football analysis.

But less than a decade ago, using cold numbers to evaluate shot opportunities, rather than relying on gut instinct and optimism, was revolutionary.

“Between 2012 and 2015, the expected goals model became popular, more widely understood and understood,” York said.

“As a coach, you’d be crazy if you didn’t incorporate what these models are telling you into what you’re telling your players.”

So, has data changed tactics? Do coaches see in the spreadsheet that long-term goals are seared into our memories, but that over the course of a season, trying to repeat them diminishes their chances of winning?

There is precedent for this.

In basketball, a successful long-distance shot is worth three points rather than two, and analytics in turn are driving teams toward confrontation more Try it from a distance.

But even the brightest minds in football data are not convinced that their industry is to blame for this trend.

Sarah Rudd, who was recruited by Arsenal in 2012 and is a pioneer in the application of advanced statistical techniques in football, was asked while speaking at the MIT Sloan School of Management Sports Analytics Conference in March. How and why things change on the pitch.

“Data forces people to be more cautious in analyzing things,” she said.

“So now people are asking 'What will happen if I shoot outside the box?'”

But she also points out that long before mathematical models existed, the best teams tended to focus on capturing higher-quality footage at close range.

One of Rudd's first projects at the Emirates Stadium will be to assess whether his Arsenal side are trying to “walk in” as was a common criticism of Wenger in his later years.

“I find they are, but so are all the other good teams in the Premier League,” she said.

These numbers simply confirm what the best people are already doing wisely.

Joining Rudd in the group is Ian Graham, who has a similar role behind the scenes at Liverpool until 2023.

What he saw was not that data influenced tactics, but the opposite: a dramatic change in the tactical methods of influencing data.

“I think the decrease in shooting distance is a result of changing game styles,” he said.

“Compared to 10 years ago, when there was a lot of long-ball football and attempts outside the box, the team's style of play is much more similar to what Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp brought.

“I think it looks like it has to do with the analysis and it's just a happy accident.”

The high defensive line being pressed hard and fast by the opposition means that when a chance does arise in today's game, the attackers either have a closer view of the goal or can run towards it with ease.

They no longer feed on knockdowns and quick shots as a deep backline keeps them at arm's length.

But Taylor's thought process at Fratton Park in December 2006 was not that complicated.

When a loose ball comes up between Nwankwo Kanu and Simon Davies, he's not thinking about high-value shots or low defensive blocks, opportunity cost or half-court space.

Instead, Taylor just noticed how cute it sat.

Now, as a head coach, he believes today's generation of players has more on their mind.

“If you sat down the players from December 2006 and now, they would be two different types of people,” he said.

“There’s always been pressure internally – from your coaches, teammates and the fans in the stadium – but now there’s more external pressure.

“After a game, players take a shower, do some media coverage and then turn on their phone and they might get 50,000 messages that have been tagged on Twitter or Instagram.

“That's where young players – young guys in general – get a lot of information and feedback. Everybody likes praise and they don't like persistence.

“If you shoot from 25 yards and the ball goes by, you're going to get criticized and the next time the opportunity comes up you're probably thinking in the back of your mind, 'If I miss again, I'm probably going to get the same result.' Reply '.

“Is this going to impact people and influence their decisions? Of course it will, and it has to.”

Last November, Sky Sports data editor Adam Smith noticed a statistical oddity that could reinforce Taylor's theory that the content players consume via screens affects their performance on the pitch.

The launch of Netflix's documentary series chronicling David Beckham's career – with the first episode focusing on his famous long-range goal against Wimbledon in 1996 – coincides with an increase in the number of shots from 30 yards and above in the Premier League Four times.

After a few weeks, distance attempts seemed to be back to their previous levels.

In December 2006, social media was just born. Podcast analytics and YouTube views didn’t exist yet. Fewer games are being shown on TV, and highlights are becoming harder to find.

Social contagion spreads in a more personal way.

In today's Premier League, competing systems and processes grind out a path to results. Players are cogs in the machine.

However, the 1990s were the era of the alpha hitter. Greatness often comes from a single performance by a single actor. A bolt from the blue – or 25 yards plus – formed the team's figurehead.

The Premier League's top scorers outside the penalty area depicts the most famous players and rivals of the era: Chelsea's Frank Lampard, Liverpool's Steven Gerrard, Manchester United's David Beckham and Arsenal Thierry Henry.

When the ball falls 25 yards away from them, do they instinctively try to outscore their star elsewhere despite much criticism?

While these names are the most prolific and easily associated with magic strikes, they are not the best ranged shooters. Or, at least not the most efficient one.

Since Stats Perform began collecting data in 2003-04, the player most successful in converting shots from outside the penalty area into goals in the Premier League is Matheus Pereira, with the Brazilian playing for Spain between 2019 and 2021. The Browns lasted two seasons. Travel to Saudi Arabia.

Interestingly, City are known for their highly structured, intricate attack designed to get around defences, well represented by their most effective long-range artists, Bernardo Silva, Phil Fo Den and Sergio Aguero both round out the top five.

The entire list is skewed towards newer situations, suggesting that current players are more picky about their chances of shooting from distance, shooting less frequently but with a higher success rate.

Of course, every screamer has a silent partner.

The spate of long-range goals at this summer's European Championships has turned attention to the ball, with some suggesting that something in Adidas' product – which contains sugar cane and wood pulp – is more beneficial for strikers than goalkeepers.

The 2010 World Cup saw an above-average number of goals scored from long range, while goalkeepers claimed that Adidas' Jabulani ball had an unpredictable trajectory.

The 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons – the two seasons with the highest proportion of goals from distance in Premier League history – were played in the Nike Total 90 Aerow II.

For the first time, Nike no longer refers to the ball as “faster” in its promotional materials, instead believing that quality must be “inherent.” Maybe they should.