Global winners and losers of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that he plans to announce a 25% 25% tariff on Monday, targeting imports of steel and aluminum.

The proposed taxation will complement existing responsibilities and no timetable for implementation is specified.

Two metals are an important part of various industries, including transportation, construction and packaging.

If Trump continues to use the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, it will be the biggest potential winner and loser.

Perhaps no surprise, the biggest winner in trade tariffs may be the United States

Official data show that U.S. steel imports have dropped sharply over the past decade, down 35% between 2014 and 2024, although it rose 2.5% to 26.2 million tons per year last year. Many attribute it to tariffs caused by President Trump’s first administration.

However, U.S. aluminum imports have increased by 14% over the past decade, with U.S. metal exports gradually rising since 2020.

On Monday, James Campbell, an analyst at CRU, a commodity pricing consulting firm, told CNBC that he hopes that potential tariffs will have a different impact on the United States over time.

“In the beginning, that could hurt demand,” he said. “In the long run, we can see investments going on.”

Since Trump's first wave of tariffs in 2018, Cru's Carkbell said the U.S. has seen an increase in investment in the steel and aluminum sectors.

During his first presidency, Trump charged tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Canada, Mexico and the EU. His government also restricts imports to various other countries, including South Korea, Argentina and Australia.

A later report from the Congressional Research Bureau found that the Trump administration collected more than $1.4 billion in revenue in the first five months of policy.

In 2024, the United States imported steel from 79 countries and aluminum from 89 countries. According to government data, the total value of these imports has just exceeded $49 billion.

These two countries are one of the largest exporters of steel and aluminum in the United States, so even if the tariffs come into effect, they may be hurt by the tariffs – even in a temporary breathing momentum to all of their exports to the United States.

Germany is also a large steel exporter of the United States and may be negatively affected by tariffs.

However, ThyssenkruppOne of Europe's largest steel manufacturers told CNBC on Monday that the impact on its business would be “very limited” if the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The German company said Europe remains the main market for steel, with only “high-quality” niche products exported to the United States maintaining a “good market position”.

“Most of Thyssenkrupp's sales in the U.S. come from trading and automotive supply businesses,” a spokesperson said via email. “In principle, Thyssenkrupp's sales in these businesses in the U.S. Very well located, with a large portion of local manufacturing in the local market. Most of the production of American customers is carried out in the United States.”

If Trump continues to enforce the policy, South Korea, Vietnam and Japan may also see countries whose metals are subject to new import tariffs.

Imports from Vietnam increased by more than 140%, according to CNBC's analysis of U.S. trade data. Compared with the previous year, Taiwan also exported 75% of steel to the United States.