Conflict and extreme weather top risks in 2025

Risk experts ranked armed conflict, extreme weather and disinformation as the top global risks in the year ahead, according to a survey released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Wednesday.

In the World Economic Forum's flagship Global Risks Report, nearly a quarter (23%) of respondents ranked national armed conflict as the most pressing issue in 2025.

Misinformation and disinformation ranked as the top risk in the two-year time frame for the second year running, while environmental issues such as extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse dominated the ten-year risk rankings.

Extreme weather events, including heat waves, tornadoes and floods, figure prominently among short- and long-term risks. The climate crisis is making extreme weather more frequent and severe.

The report comes as nearly 3,000 leaders from more than 130 countries prepare to attend the World Economic Forum's annual meeting. The four-day event kicks off on Monday in the Swiss mountain village of Davos.

“Rising geopolitical tensions, a breakdown in global trust and the climate crisis are putting unprecedented pressure on the global system,” Mirek Dusek, managing director of the World Economic Forum, said in a statement.

“In a world of growing divisions and emerging risks, global leaders face a choice: foster cooperation and resilience or face complex instability. The stakes have never been higher,” Dusek said.

The survey considers short-term risks to 2025, short- to medium-term risks to 2027, and long-term risks to 2035. The report was informed by a survey of more than 900 global risk experts, policymakers and industry leaders last September and October.

The World Economic Forum said that two years ago, armed conflict was seen as the main short-term risk, a development that reflected rising geopolitical tensions and an increasingly fragmented global landscape.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has previously warned that the world is facing the most conflicts since World War II, such as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.

Some other short-term risks identified in the latest World Economic Forum report include social polarization, cyber espionage, pollution and inequality.

Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer, said: “It is clear that the world is in a serious situation and the global risk landscape is like a squirrel’s nest with interconnected and layered risks making the business environment very, very difficult. It’s difficult to navigate,” an official with Marsh McLennan Europe told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro on Wednesday.

Clint said the risks don't necessarily reflect a new trend, but one that is “becoming increasingly aggressive.”

“I think we're going through an era of heightened economic tensions,” Clint said. “I think we have to recognize that fragmentation is not a theoretical problem. It's something we need to face today. So it leads to a more complex and uncertain trading environment.”