At the Federal Reserve Conference, the prospect of bank loan in the main investment of policy makers

Michael S. Derby (Michael S. Derby)

(Reuters) -The credit data may be considered at a two -day Federal Reserve Policy Conference on Tuesday, which may indicate that the pump supply increases the pump of bank loans. The prospects have become complicated borrowing expenses related to the central bank policy.

Fed officials will definitely stabilize the benchmark interest rates of the US Central Bank within 4.25 % -4.40 % on Wednesday, because they have begun to weigh the Trump administration's economic agenda how to affect the trend of viscous inflation and stable growth.

Understanding bank loan status is the key to this work. The person in charge of the bank has been pouring to this prospect for the second time this month, but the Federal Reserve officials will check whether the results of the loan official investigation this week have stated that the closest bank officials sharing optimism for optimism.

Although Trump's lighter supervision of financial institutions and enterprises may have to lay the foundation for reinforcing loans and borrowing, but still expensive borrowing costs related to the solid inflation rate may weaken the demand for credit. At the same time, Trump ’s active trade tariff agenda and deportation of non -certificate workers are causing a lot of uncertainty.

Yun is too thick, so that the New York Fed President John Williams said earlier this month that because the government's policy environment has not resolved, he cannot provide guidance on interest rate policies.

RSM US LLP's chief economist Joseph Brusulas said that Trump reached the White House to “have a very heavy relaxation framework”, which made the banker “absolutely dizzy” because they thought of they thought of It is easier to loan in a strong economy. Essence

Nancy Lazar, the chief global economist of Piper Sandler, also warned that despite the rise in loans, the policy and economy said that “this may not become a credit cycle. Prosperity.”

Banks have been sitting at the level of stagnant commercial and industrial loans, although the total loan level in many parts of the credit industry has been rising.

Loose standard

Brusulas and Lazar predict that this new landscape will be defined by relaxing the standards of loan standards. These standards have already appeared in the investigation of the Federal Reserve's senior loan officials. The survey was released to November. The latest wine survey is expected to be submitted to Federal Reserve officials at this week and posted to the public on Monday.

Lazar predicts that the survey “will show a very clear loan standard.”

Loan prospects have also changed some bond dynamic changes, because the so -called yield curve relaxes more typical postures, and longer securities provide a shorter posture and higher rate of return.

Lauren Goodwin said: “In the past few months, the way of making money for banks in the past few months is a meaningful gospel.” The chief market strategist of Life Investment in New York.

The rise in bank loans and credit demand is worth noting because it is undergoing the scope of economic expansion, not at the beginning of the new cycle.

“We are not early cycles, because we have never declined, but we are in the early stages of banks. The loan increases and starts to increase loans, which may more actively increase loans.” “Related risks. I. It is believed that the recent risk is inflation, “the pressure on inflation with the expansion of borrowing still exceeds the 2 % target of the Federal Reserve.

Borrowed backwind

This is one of the reasons why the inflation environment is still one of the reasons why banks cannot expand loans even if they are willing to expand loans.

After reducing its overnight target interest rate last year, the Federal Reserve was withdrawn from expectations in 2025's reduced expectations. This is because of a point that inflation will remain above this year's goal. Higher lending costs can be almost sure to limit the mortgage loan industry and let who borrow in consumers and business sectors.

“Due to rising interest rates, companies with original balance sheets will tend to adventure. Brucelas said more advantages of available credit.” This will inspire small companies to appeal later. “

Economists also see the prospects of loans of consumer departments. High -end consumers may be in a good position, and low -income families may continue to show some signs of wear, such as the recent FED data.

Goodwin said that the United States “is indeed a split economy in terms of credit demand.”

The Fed of the Fed of the Philadelphia said last week that although the credit card arrears rate is still very low, it rose in the third quarter of 2024. When the family had savings in the family at the time, the lows saw during the 19-9 popular period.

(Report from Michael S. Derby; Edit of Paul Simao)