Donald Trump's tariffs to Canada, Mexico and China will hurt our consumers?

Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China.

The US President signed an administrative order to sign a 25 % tariff on tariffs (or import tax) from all goods from Canada and Mexico, so that the two countries crack down on illegal immigrants and drug trafficking.

Commodities from China will also be “higher than any other tariffs” by 10 % of tariffs until Fantini smuggling. He has promised to aim at the country at a rate of 60 % and considers 200 % tax on some cars.

Tariffs are the core part of Trump's economic vision-he believes that they are the way to develop the US economy, protect work and increase tax revenue.

During his campaign, He told voters that the tax “is not a price for you, but the cost of another country.”

Economists almost generally believe that this is misleading.

In fact, tariffs are domestic taxes levied on goods when entering the country, which is directly proportional to imported value.

Therefore, a US -imported US -imported car worth $ 50,000 (£ 38,000) will face $ 12,500.

The cost is actually paid by the domestic companies of imported goods, rather than foreign companies exported to its export.

Therefore, in this sense, this is a direct tax paid by the US company to the US government.

In the process of 2023 Import About 3.1 tons of goods, Equivalent to the surrounding 11 % of American GDP.

And tariffs on these imports bring That year, $ 8 billion, About 2 % U.S. total tax revenue.

The final tariff burden is more complicated to the opposite of the previous bill.

If the US importing company transferred the cost of tariffs to those who bought the product in the United States in the form of a higher retail price, then American consumers bear the economic burden.

If the US import company absorbs the cost of the tariff itself and will not continue to use it, it is said that the company's economic burden is to bear in a low -profit form that was previously enjoyed.

In addition, foreign exporters may have to reduce their wholesale prices through tariff value to retain their US customers.

In this case, the export company will bear the economic burden of tariffs in a lower profit form.

Theoretically, these three situations are possible.

but Economic research affected by new tariffs The term that Trump implemented during the first term between 2017 and 2020 showed that most economic burdens were eventually borne by American consumers.

A survey at the University of Chicago In September 2024, he asked whether a group of respected economists agreed to “levy tariffs that caused most of the tariffs borne by consumers in the country. These tariffs were part of the tariffs imposed by rising prices.” Only 2 % do not agree.

Let's use a specific example.

Trump imposed a 50 % tariff on washing machine imports in 2018.

Researchers estimate As a direct result, the value of washing machines has jumped by about 12 %, which is equivalent to $ 86 per unit, while American consumers pay about $ 1.5 billion for these products each year.

There is no reason to believe where the decline in economic burden will be different in the future of the Trump administration's import tax rate.

Non -Party Peterson Institute of International Economics estimate Trump ’s new proposal tariffs will reduce the income of Americans, and the scope of influence from one -fifth of the poorest to the richest fifth and the poorest 2 %.

The think tank estimates that a typical family in the central region in the United States will lose about $ 1,700 each year.

Different methodology There is an estimate Middle -income families loses $ 2,500 to $ 3,900.

Various researchers have also warned Another round of tariffs from the United States will risk another high risk of inflation in China.

However, Trump used another economic reason for his tariffs: they protected and created our domestic work.

“According to my plan, American workers will no longer worry about throwing your work to foreign countries, but foreign countries will worry about losing work to the United States,” He said on the way to campaignEssence

The political background of Trump tariffs has long been concerned about countries with low labor costs in the US manufacturing industry for a long time. Especially after signing In 1994, the “North American Free Trade Agreement” (NAFTA) with Mexico and Mexico and China will enter the World Trade Organization in 2001.

In January 1994, after the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect, the United States had less than 17 million manufacturing employment opportunities. By 2016, this has fallen About 12 million.

However, economists say that this decline is misleading by trade and believes that the level of automation is getting higher and higher. It is also an important factorEssence

Researchers studying the influence of Trump's first tariffs No active influence of substantiveness About the overall employment of the protected American industrial sector.

Trump imposed a 25 % tariff on imported steel in 2018 to protect American manufacturers.

By 2020, The total employment of the American Iron and Steel Department It is 80,000, which is still less than 84,000 in 2018.

Trump has criticized the US trade deficit, which is the difference between the value of all items imported by the country and the value of export value during the given year.

“Trade deficit seriously damages the economy,” He saidEssence

In 2016, before Trump took office, Total goods and service deficit It is $ 480 billion, accounting for about 2.5 % of the US GDP. By 2020, despite tariffs, it has increased to $ 65.3 billion, accounting for about 3 % of GDP.

Part of the explanation, According to economistsYes, Trump's tariffs increase the international relative value of the US dollar (by automatically reducing the demand for Chinese and foreign currencies by international trade), which reduces the global competitiveness of US exporters.

Another factor that failed to eliminate the trade deficit is that tariffs can sometimes be bypassed in the global economy economy with multinational companies.

For example, the Trump administration applied 30 % Tariffs to China's imported solar panels In 2018.

US Department of Commerce The evidence proposed is 2023 Chinese solar panel manufacturers transfer their rally business to countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, and then send the finished products from these countries to the United States to effectively avoid tariffs.

Some economists support Trump's tariff plans to promote a way in the US industry, such as Jeff Ferry, who prospered, a domestic lobbying group, but they are a minority in the industry.

Oren Cass, the director of the conservative think tank of the US compass Excluding tariffs can Inspiring the company to retain more manufacturing business in the United States, he believes that this has national defense and supply chain security benefits.

Although the Biden/Harris government severely criticized Trump's proposal for tariffs, he implemented many people after 2018.

It also has Require new tariffs Regarding imports from electric vehicles from China, it is reasonable to be reasonable on the grounds that they are reasonable for national security, American industrial policy and Beijing's unfair domestic subsidies.