With the Trump's tariffs, the world parentheses overflowing the stock market
With the Trump's tariffs, the world parentheses overflowing the stock market
(Bloomberg) -Donald Trump, US President Donald Trump, is planning to collect taxes on Canadian and Mexican products on Saturday. It is now guessing how they will affect the global stock market.
Most of them come from Bloomberg
The noise of Trump's announcement is refined from any noise to the challenge to investors. For example, Trump said on Thursday that tariffs will begin on Saturday, and then report on Friday that they will actually take effect on March 1st, and finally on Friday afternoon, the White House confirms that they will actually be in February 1st 1st Sunday.
In addition to the chaos, there are many uncertainty. Trump may file a 25 % tariff on all imports or stages of Canada and Mexico every month. He can condemn to specific industries in a targeted way, such as investors interpreted it as softening to him. His plans for China and Europe are still general.
Chris Beckett, the person in charge of Quilter Cheviot research, said: “Because we don't know what will happen, we must assume that almost all tariffs imported into the United States have tariffs.” Then, you start to worry about TIT -FOR-TAT's revenge and free trade decrease. “
Interestingly, within 10 days since Trump's initial tariff threats on January 21, the Standard Purcera 500 Index is essentially flat, while Europe, Canada and Mexico's stocks are even higher, and Nasdaq The Golden Dragon Index (Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index), which is composed of companies composed of these companies, conducts business in China, but its trade in the United States has jumped more than 4 %.
Axa IM European stock leader Gilles Guibout said in a telephone interview: “The market has been priced a lot on the US tariff issue, but Trump is always likely to exceed the expected risk.” “There is a one The general uncertainty of species exceeds the tariff problem: Trump is completely unpredictable. “
This is a global stock and department may be seen by the biggest risk of Trump's plan:
Canada and Mexico
As tariffs on Canada and Mexico are expected to be applied for a day, traders have remained vigilant against the sharp fluctuations in the front line of any trade war.
Automotive manufacturers such as GM, Ford Motor Corporation and Standeis NV. They have a global supply chain and expose Mexico and Canada in large numbers. Electric vehicle manufacturers Tesla Inc., Rivian Automotive Inc. and Lucid Group Inc. may also feel pinch. The term “tariff” has soared on the phone call.
“Lazard Freres Gestion's stock, Thomas Brenier, said:” The tariffs between Mexico and Canada are actually the worst news. “” This is a bad news for American industrial complexes that will seriously increase the cost of automakers and damage the supply chain of the supply chain. “” “
Pharmaceuticals, steel, copper, and aluminum industry are also under microscope because Trump threatens tariffs on them. Deee & CO. Industrial manufacturers such as CaterPillar Inc. and BOING CO. may struggle. In particular, aircraft manufacturer Bombardier Inc. has a manufacturing business in Mexico and sells its products in the United States.
On the other hand, small stocks are likely to be unhappy, so they will benefit from competitiveness, because their business is usually based on domestic, enabling them to avoid the threat of trade protectionist economic policies.
China and Asia
President said on Thursday that he will perform a 10 % import tariff in China, but there is no designated opportunity.
Since the presidential election of the United States, foreign investors have almost escaped from all regional markets, because they have paid more and more attention to Trump's “US” policy. There are few positive returns in Asia-the secondary statistics of materials and public undertaking have fallen by more than 10 %, while real estate, consumers' staple food and energy materials and public causes have fallen by more than 5 %.
The Chinese revenue of Asian chip giants including Samsung Electronics Corporation and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation has become the focus of attention, as the United States will become more difficult to be stricter and stricter, so that advanced chips are away from China. Including Nvidia Corp., Applied Materials Inc. and Broadcom Inc., American semiconductor manufacturers may also be hit.
Due to most of China's supply chain in the industry, solar companies are also facing major risks. Investors will watch the world's largest solar module manufacturer Longi Green Energy Technology Co., as well as its smaller peer Ja Solar Technology Co. Increase consumer tax credits for electric vehicles.
Europe
Although the euro zone is unlikely that Trump's instant pain will be made, it does not stand out completely, because US president said that Europe may face a series of tariffs on its own. The members of the STOXX 600 index generated 40 % of revenue in the EU, 26 % of which came from North America.
According to the estimate of the Citigroup Inc. strategist led by Beata Manthey, 10 % of European goods tariffs will reduce a discount of 1 % to 2 %. According to the current forecast, it is expected that European revenue is expected to rise by 7 % in Europe, and US revenue will increase by 15 % this year.
Since Volkswagen has a manufacturing base in Mexico, auto manufacturers may see significant impacts. HandelsBlatt reported this week that the German auto manufacturer is considering establishing production facilities in the United States to deal with tariffs. The STOXX car and parts index rose about 5 % this year. After the loss of more than 12 % in 2024, the performance of the STOXX 600 declined slightly, which made the worst performance in the 20 major areas of the index.
Karen Georges, the fund manager of ECOFI in Paris, said she recently purchased stocks of a US waste management company without a trade war. She also has German exporters. She said that although these stocks have some exposure to the United States, the output there is not much, and it can easily benefit trade tensions.
Other European industries to watch, including miners, especially steel factories, as well as manufacturers of alcoholic beverages such as Remy Cointreau Sa and Pernod Ricard SA. These drinks are often sensitive to customs news.
Martin Frandsen, the main asset management global stock investment group manager, suggested that companies that make money abroad, such as pharmaceutical vendors, and insurance companies with some insurance characteristics and high capital returns, making them uncertainty It is attractive during the period. He said: “In an environment where uncertainty is enhanced, this is highly selective.”
-From with Michael Msika.
(Update indexes move in the fifth paragraph and update the first chart.)
