The factory activity contract in January was surprised with the factory activity contract; the industrial profit jumped in December

In January, the factory activities in China were accidentally shrinking. Some reason was that in a slow season before the Lunar New Year, it reversed the growth of the first three months, and the living people needed more powerful financial support to promote the economy.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, the official procurement manager index in January was 49.1, which is estimated to be 50.1 compared with the Reuters public opinion test.

According to official data, PMI has remained 50 points in the past three months, 50.1 in December, November 50.3 points, October 50.1 points.

HUI SHAN, chief Chinese economist of Goldman Sachs, said that the manufacturing PMI in January is often softer, because immigrant workers return to their hometown before entering the farm on January 29.

After the data was released, the blue chip CSI 300 reversed the growth of the day that day, which was slightly lower.

Bruce Pang, a senior researcher at the National Institute of Finance and Development, said that although the manufacturing PMI is soft, the overall demand prospects seem to be positive.

NBS's senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a press release in January that the price level of the main raw materials for the purchase and sales in January was improved-although it is still in the field of contraction. ZHAO added that the prospects of the production and operation of a large number of companies have expanded to 55.3, which indicates that most manufacturers are increasingly confident in the expansion of the business expansion after the holidays.

China's non -manufacturing PMI measurement service and construction activities fell to 50.2 in January, while the previous month was 52.2.

NBS的Zhao说，PMI的服务率上升了50.3，比上个月少，但考虑到假期引起的需求，仍在扩大，尤其是在受益于季节性旅行匆忙的部门中，例如公共交通，酒店， Food and beverage industry.

The construction PMI fell to 49.3 because the activity stagnated before the festival.

Capital economist Zichuan Huang said in a report: “The disappointing PMI data emphasizes the difficulties facing policy makers in terms of continuous recovery.”

Although economic activities may be carried out in the next few months, because policy makers may strengthen stimulus and pre -load deficit expenditure in early 2025, the economy is still struggling due to the structural anti -wind and tariff threat of the new US government.

China's industrial profits in 2024 fell 3.3 % from the previous year, extended for the third consecutive year. However, the profit of December increased by 11 % over the same period last year It has grown for the first time since July.

In September, corporate profits have been recovering from the rapid decline of 27 % in September. This is the biggest decline in the big popularity period in COVID-19-19 in March 2020. Due to the downturn and bleak income prospects of the real estate department, they decreased by 7.3 % in the year in November and 10 % in October.

Industrial profits are key indicators of Chinese factories, public utilities and mining financial conditions.

Last year, the world's second largest economy reached the official annual growth goal, an increase of 5.0 %, with the measures taken by a series of stimulus measures. Economists point out that industrial output growth exceeds the sales of retail, emphasizing the strength of the country's supply, and domestic demand remains unchanged. Weak.

NBS Statisticalist Yu Weining said in a statement that the profit of the manufacturer of consumer goods has increased steadily, an increase of 3.4 % over last year, which is increased due to the policy incentives for consumption and strong exports.

A PMI sub -index that measured China's new export orders was 46.4 in January, the lowest level since February last year. Peng said that, given the seasonal factors during the Lunar New Year, the level is “good”, and pointed out that “the front -load of exporting to the potential trade tensions is still in progress.”

Due to the concerns of potential tariffs, Chinese exporters have been rushing to carry their freight before. US President Donald Trump threatened a 10 % tariff from February 1st to February 1st. During his campaign, he suggested that more than 60 % of Chinese goods tariffs.

Goldman Shengshan said that in view of the scale and timing of US tariffs, China's economic downturn has not yet seen a “turning point”. She added: “The most important thing is that we do need a large amount of stimulus of the government, and even have the opportunity to raise inflation and confidence.”