The Standard Purcera 500 Index (^GSPC) has just set the best first four trading days after the first week since the first week of the new president in Ronald Reagan.
In the next week, it will bring a lot of news to investors and to withstand the testes.
The gains of more than 100 member companies in the S & P 500 Index are about to be released. Among them, the performance of the technology giants META (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) and TSLA (TSLA) will focus on Wednesday. Wednesday will be the most this week. Busy moment. Starbucks (SBUX), ExMom (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) will also release reports.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed will also announce the latest monetary policy decision. It is expected that the central bank to maintain interest rates will remain unchanged. Investors pay attention to the Fed's chairman Powell's speech for more than 2025.
Last week, the Standards 500 Index, Nasdaq Comprehensive Index (^IXIC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (^DJI) rose each during the four -day trading week that was shortened during the holidays. In the past five days, the S & P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Index have risen more than 2.8%; the technology index has increased by more than 3.1%at the same time.
On Tuesday, after Trump did not launch a series of common tariffs that some people expected on the first day of his office, the market rose and the US dollar fell.
Citi stock strategist Scott Chronrt wrote in a report to customers on Friday that the implicit volatility of interest rates, dollars and petroleums this week has decreased.
“The pricing of some downward policy catalysts is a kind of cross -asset phenomenon,” Cronat said. “So far, the macro interference we see is less than the initial expectations.”
On Wednesday, Trump announced a new 500 billion US dollars of private sector investment called “Stargate”, and jointly built artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States with OPENAI, OPENAI, and Japanese Corporate Softbank (9984.T). It triggered an artificial intelligence rebound. ) Among those who promise to joint venture.
Oracle and SoftBank, and Microsoft and Nvida (NVDA) have risen because of this news.
In the first week, not only did the market's concerns about tariffs did not become a reality, but the hot artificial intelligence trade also re -become the focus of people's attention. Trump's second government's good start.
It is expected that market news this week will be more busy, and investors' attention to Trump's policy will be tested because the Federal Reserve statement that usually affects the market highlights this week's economic news.
According to data from CME Group, the market has digesting the possibility of central banks to release the latest policies at 2:00 pm on Wednesday, Eastern Time, to maintain stability of interest rates nearly 100%. Powell's press conference is scheduled to start at 2:30 pm Eastern time, which may be a greater source of market fluctuations.
Last Thursday, Trump said in a virtual appearance at the Davos World Economic Forum that as oil prices fell, he would “require interest rates to fall immediately.” These remarks have triggered discussions on potential conflicts with the Fed.
Morgan Chase chief American economist Michael Feroly said that even so, this press conference may not be as exciting as usual. Ferolley wrote: “In recent years, Powell's post -meeting press conference often seized the limelight on the day of the Federal Open Market Committee.”
“However, we expect he will adopt more 'avoiding and covering methods next week. In particular, we expect that he will show that each committee participants will use their own conditions to decide the final trade policy, and and and and of. The only decision of the meeting is the monetary policy statement agreed next Wednesday “
In 2017, President Donald Trump (left) and the Federal Reserve Director Jerom Powell were held at the White House in Washington Special Economic Zone. (Xinhua News Agency/Yin Bogu, Getty Picture Club) InXinhua News Agency/Getty Picture Club
Several important data on the economic and health of the United States will also be released this week.
On Thursday, the first estimate of the fourth quarter of GDP is estimated to show that the annualized growth rate of the US economy in the last three months of 2024 was 2.6%, which was lower than the 3.1%in the previous quarter.
On Friday, the latest data of the Fed's preferred inflation index personal consumption expenditure index will be announced on Friday. Economists expect the annual “core” personal consumption expenditure (excluding food and energy categories with large fluctuations) in December, 2.8%, and last year The same period is flat. November. Economists predict that the “core” PCE inflation rate will rise by 0.2%last month, almost 0.1%in November.
Royal Bank of Canada's capital market US interest rate strategy director Blake Gwinn wrote in a report to customers on Friday that data dancers this weekend -plus Trump's policy -may Let the Fed “play the third violinist” in the market.
Gwen believes that whether it is Trump's comments or the upcoming data, it may “soon make Powell's all out of date at the press conference next week.”
The financial report of the S & P 500 Index is strong. According to FactSet data, the index is expected to increase by 12.7%over the same period last year.
However, this growth still relies on the performance of the “Seven Congress” technology stocks to a large extent. Four companies -Tesla, META, Microsoft and Apple -will release reports in the next week.
The profit of the seven technology stocks in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 21.7%, while the profit of other 493 technology stocks is expected to increase by 9.7%.
As shown in the figure below, the gap between this profit growth is expected to be reduced in 2025, prompting many stock strategists to call for the expansion of the stock market beyond large technology stocks.
Although Venu Krishna, director of Barclays Bank's US stock strategy director, pointed out in its 2025 outlook that, in view of the expected growth of large -scale technology companies' annual profit, the group's “may still hold a key attitude towards the growth momentum of Standard Purcera's income per share”. It is 500 people (2024). “
It is worth noting that, after a moderate slowing down in the first six months of this year, the profit growth of the seven giants is expected to accelerate in the second half of this year.
Economic data: In December, Chicago Federal Reserve National Event Index (previously -0.12); December Sales of New House was sold from the previous month (expected to increase by 6.6%, and the previous increase of 5.9%)
income: AT & T (T), Nue Iron (Nue), SOFI (SOFI), Western Union Bank (WAL)
Economic data: December durable goods order (expected+0.8%, previous -1.2%); FHFA house price index, month-on-month, November (previous +0.4%), S & P costic case-shiller housing price, 20 city indexes, seasonal adjustment, 11 month-on-month adjustment, 11 Month (+0.3% expectations,+0.32%) before); January of the consumer confidence index of the World Federation of Large World Enterprise Federation (expected to be 105.6, previously 104.7);
income: Boeing (BA), GM (GM), Jielan Airlines (JBLU), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Logi (LOGI), Royal Caribbean Cruise (RCL), SAP (SAP), Starbucks (SBUX), West Sco (SYY)
Economic data: MBA mortgage application, as of January 24 (previously increased by 0.1%); FOMC interest rate decision (expected will not change)
income: Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), ADP (ADP), ASML (ASML), General Power (GD), IBM (IBM), Nasdaq, Progressive (PGR) , Servicenow (now), T-Mobile (TMUS), VF Corporation (VFC)
Economic data: In the fourth quarter, GDP, the first estimate (annualized rate is+2.6%, before+3.1%); personal consumption, early estimation in the fourth quarter (annualized expectations+3.1%, before+3.7%); core PCE, core PCE, core PCE, In the fourth quarter, prediction in the fourth quarter (previously+2.2%); the number of people who applied for unemployment relief for the first time on January 25 (previously 223,000)
income: Apple (AAPL), Black Stone (BX), Caterpillar (CAT), CMCSA, Dow Chemistry (DOW), DECKERS OUTDOORS (Deck), Intel (MA), MOBILEYE, MOBILEYE (MBLY), Southwest Airlines (LUV)), UPS (UPS), American Iron and Steel (X), VISA (V)
Economic Calendar: The December core PCE index (expected to increase by 0.2%and 0.1%before); December Core PCE index year -on -year (expected to increase by 2.8%, previously 2.8%); 0.8%)
income: Charter Communications (CHTR), Chevron (CVX), Gaoling (CL), Exxon Mobil (XOM), PHILLIPS 66 (PSX)
Josh Schafer is a reporter from Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_JOSHSCHAFEREssence
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