Analysis: Sudan could face breakup of Darfur as war progresses Sudan war news

After nearly two years of fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan is fearing the possibility of being divided by a de facto partition that broadly separates Darfur from the rest of the country.

Médecins Sans Frontières is deeply entrenched in the western region, an area almost the size of France, although the military is advancing into other parts of the country, leading to divisions that are likely to become more severe.

Analysts say if that happens, the country could not only be damaged by more local conflicts but could also lead to further national collapse.

“Split will be the beginning of the end for Sudan,” said Kholood Khair, founder of Confluence Advisory, a think tank focused on Sudanese politics.

Given the devastation Sudan has already suffered, it's hard to imagine things getting worse.

Since fighting broke out in April 2023 between the army and Doctors Without Borders for control of the country, tens of thousands have been killed, millions have been displaced and millions more face starvation.

However, Kyle told Al Jazeera that if the isolation becomes more entrenched and the fighting subsides, it could undermine and fragment the loose alliance built around the military and Médecins Sans Frontières, making a lasting peace deal more difficult to achieve.

“The country would immediately fall apart and there would be less chance of putting Humpty Dumpty back together,” she said.

DIVIDING LINE

The Sudanese army has achieved a major victory in recent days and regained control of Sudan's second largest city, Wad Madani.

According to local monitors, Wade Madani has been under the control of Médecins Sans Frontières for a year, during which time MSF forces committed serious human rights violations.

There have since been credible reports that the army has executed people for perceived links to SSF, which it denies but has previously been accused of.

Médecins Sans Frontières failed to retain Wade Madani in part because it was unable to recruit loyal recruits outside Darfur.

The area is a traditional stronghold of Doctors Without Borders. The paramilitary force is made up of tribal Janjaweed militiamen who later became notorious state-backed groups used as rebel forces during the Darfur war, a 17-year conflict that officially began in 2020. Finish.

Outside Darfur, MSF's support is limited. Analysts say Médecins Sans Frontières may lose control of the capital Khartoum in the coming weeks, which could force it to retreat and focus on capturing El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state.

The city has been under siege by Doctors Without Borders for months and hundreds of people have died, according to the United Nations.

Since Médecins Sans Frontières already controls East, West, Central and South Darfur, capturing the northern capital would bring the entire region under its control.

This would be no small victory, as Darfur is a resource-rich region strategically bordered by Chad, South Sudan and Libya.

“This looks like a situation that (the army and Médecins Sans Frontières) would be happy with because it allows both sides to achieve a military victory that other situations would not,” Kyle said.

Abandon Darfur?

Sudan's war has attracted foreign countries, allowing the military and Médecins Sans Frontières forces to sustain the war effort and control large swaths of the country.

The army was on the verge of collapse a year ago after the loss of Gezira state to SSF, prompting Army Chief of Staff Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to step down.

The shocking defeat prompted Iran, Türkiye and Egypt to step up support to save the troops, Haile said.

“People who support the army say this is not the same animal as last year,” she told Al Jazeera. “They have more advanced weapons, they're doing a better job with logistics, and they're getting a lot of help from Egypt and the Turks. … The military is a lot different than it was last year.”

Egypt has long insisted on returning Gazira and Khartoum to military control to bolster its legitimacy as an undisputed sovereign authority, Khair said.

She added that Cairo wants the army to retake all of Sudan but may accept that MSF troops are pushed back into Darfur.

“Perhaps Egypt can tolerate division,” Kyle said.

Hamid Kalafala, a Sudanese policy analyst, said that if SSF does further consolidate its position, Sudanese forces may find it difficult to occupy Darfur.

He said that if Médecins Sans Frontières does gain control of all of Darfur, they will likely be able to control the region indefinitely.

“It will take a lot of effort for the army to defeat the RSF in Darfur, and the army seems to have no interest at all (to retake the area),” Kalafala told Al Jazeera.

But this means abandoning local groups such as the Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) led by Minni Alko Minnawi (SLM-MM), which in November 2023 announced its support for the army against statelessness ​​Boundary troops.

Both groups are composed primarily of non-Arab Zaghawa fighters. The “non-Arabs” in the areas surrounding Sudan mainly refer to settled farmers, while the “Arabs” are considered pastoralists and nomads.

Both men are black and Muslim and have been intermarried for centuries. During the war in Darfur, the Sudan Liberation Army-Minawi and the Justice and Equality Movement rebelled against the central government to protest the economic and political marginalization of their region.

The two groups have signed multiple peace deals over the past two decades in hopes of gaining access to state resources and amassing some power in the country.

Analysts told Al Jazeera that the same incentives motivate these groups to support the military in the current war.

They added that the army could abandon these armed movements and their allies in exchange for occupying Khartoum.

But this does not necessarily mean the end of anti-SSF resistance in Darfur, nor the possibility of a deal between SLA-Minawi and JEM and SSF.

“Even if SSF regroups and focuses on capturing El Fasher, that doesn't mean it will win easily, even if (the army) abandons Darfur,” said Annette Hof, a Sudan expert at the independent Klingendaal Institute Mann said. The Dutch think tank told Al Jazeera, explaining that Fahir's armed movement is capable fighters and can still mount a tenacious defence.

total country collapse

Suliman Bardo, founder of the think tank Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, said both Médecins Sans Frontières and the army outsourced fighting to allied groups.

If these forces consolidate control of their strongholds, it could lead to fierce infighting within the army and Médecins Sans Frontières.

Last year, internal strife broke out between the Salamat and Beniharba tribes, two Arab tribes that support SSF in South and Central Darfur, leading to mass displacement and dozens of casualties.

According to local news reports, the two sides clashed over the loot.

Additionally, the military and its allied movements have recruited civilians into auxiliary militia groups, which Bardo believes will eventually become more powerful and then pressure the military to gain more power and wealth, similar to what eventually became Forces Without Borders Arab tribal militias.

“Each (military militia) will demand a share of wealth and power in any post-conflict situation,” Bardo warned. “The military thinks it can manipulate these groups, but they are creating chaos.”