Trump and Republicans threaten to withhold disaster aid to California

As fires continue to devastate Los Angeles County, a president is about to take office who has promised to withhold federal aid from states like California if their Democratic lawmakers don't listen to him. Donald Trump threatened months ago to withhold federal disaster aid to the state, a threat he recently reiterated.

Considering Trump reportedly delayed or withheld disaster aid to blue states and Puerto Rico during his first term as president, there's every reason to believe Trump means business, too.

In light of the California wildfires, Republican lawmakers such as Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) have also floated the idea, while House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said Monday he believes federal aid should be available conditional. “In our view, state and local leaders have failed in their jobs in a number of ways. So that's something that has to be considered,” Johnson said, echoing the larger reaction to the fires from the right, which has been blaming Democrats .

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) weighed in late Monday. “Honestly, they don’t deserve anything,” he said of the prospect of outside aid coming to California, citing the “policies of inner-city awakening.”

Wildfires in California have burned about 40,000 acres (about 62 square miles), nearly three times the size of Manhattan. Santa Ana winds are expected to increase and increase the risk of further fire spread. If Trump withholds federal aid from states like California during a disaster like this, the consequences could be huge.

“This would be unprecedented. It’s been a long-standing agreement among successive presidential administrations that when any disaster is declared, any form of Electoral politics left behind “The impact will be devastating. “

In response to the Los Angeles fires, President Joe Biden approved a major disaster declaration on January 8, directing government funds to support the region's recovery and help pay for firefighting costs. The government also deployed large aerial tankers operated by the U.S. Forest Service and federal firefighting helicopters to help fight the fires.

“There are many different ways the federal government gets involved in disasters,” said Daniel Farber, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “There are people who can try to mitigate various risks beforehand, there’s an immediate disaster response, you see people wearing FEMA jackets On the ground, and then there's the long rebuilding process, which could take years, and federal rebuilding aid.”

Beyond initially helping to respond to a disaster, the federal government's most important role is to help affected areas recover and rebuild. That means helping pay for debris removal and critical infrastructure repairs, Keenan said. If necessary, infrastructure may also need to be upgraded to help address future threats.

“These are very large upfront costs,” Keenan said. “The federal government, when they put that money toward debris removal and individual assistance and all the money that pours in after a disaster, that really does a lot to stabilize the local economy. Without it — if you take away those federal dollars “You're going to see a real delay in the return to what we call normal, stable economic output.”

Without the money, Keenan said, these communities will take longer to recover from the disaster. This could mean another disaster could occur while recovery from the last one is still ongoing. Federal resources enable communities to recover as quickly as possible and hopefully be prepared before the next disaster strikes.

“If the federal government resists disaster relief, communities could be harmed for years or decades,” Farber added.

Knowing that the Trump administration may consider withholding federal aid to blue states in the future, governors and other leaders in those states may need to consider how to prepare for such a scenario. There are steps these lawmakers can take if aid is denied, but they will never fully replace the impact of federal intervention.

“There is a mutual assistance compact between states called EMAC,” Farber said. “This has been used many times. It's a possibility, be prepared and think about what other states you might want to appeal to and what you would ask them to do.”

Keenan said he might recommend that blue states start preparing financially for disasters in ways they haven’t necessarily needed to in the past. That could involve setting aside funds for future disasters and establishing lines of credit for cities that might be affected.

“I would try to create budget items that start with where I’m saving money — where I have emergency funds, and open pools of credit lines for local governments,” Keenan said. “It’s not just cash. It creates Credit facilities, which could mean loan pools from which local governments can borrow to meet short-term credit needs.”

If the federal government decides to withhold aid for purely political reasons, states may want to be prepared to sue the government to see how it plays out in court, Farber said.

“If the president just said 'no' without explanation, it would be difficult to prosecute,” Farber said. “If the president says it's because you voted against him, it's possible to win in court.”

The federal government is often expected to step in and help when communities face natural disasters, the idea being that we are all in this together and should help each other in times of need, regardless of political affiliation. The Biden administration has provided federal aid to red states hit by hurricanes last year, despite Trump's attempts to claim he withheld aid for political reasons.

“In moments like this, it's time to put politics aside,” Biden said during a visit to Georgia after Hurricane Helene. “This is not one country versus another – this is America.”

Trump apparently doesn’t think so. The president-elect is transactional and has bad intentions, so states may not always be able to rely on federal help moving forward. However, Trump could find himself in political trouble if he starts threatening to withhold aid because of the country's electoral map.

“Red counties have a disproportionate share of disaster declarations in this country,” Keenan said. “You could pick Nevada, California, Virginia, anywhere, but it’s not going to be that easy politically,” he added, noting that Trump could use disaster relief to carry out political vendettas and end up hurting his own supporter.

Perhaps it was for this reason that he hesitated to do so. That said, Trump has not always been known to let logic get in the way of his actions.