What are the main obstacles to a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza?

Israel and Hamas have been holding indirect talks for more than a year aimed at ending the Gaza war and returning dozens of hostages held by militants in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

But despite vigorous mediation efforts by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, the negotiations have repeatedly stalled on several key issues, including the exchange of details, whether the ceasefire is permanent and Israel's troop withdrawal.

With each side accusing the other of backtracking, the war has begun.

Dozens of Palestinians are killed every day in Israeli attacks, with most of Gaza's 2.3 million residents huddled in squalid tent camps and their communities in ruins. Humanitarian groups struggle to deliver much-needed aid, and experts warn of the possibility of famine.

In Israel, families of the hostages have held weekly rallies demanding a deal to free them, fearing that their loved ones will die in the harsh conditions of captivity the longer the fighting drags on.

Let’s look at the main points of contention below.

Hamas and other groups still hold about 100 hostages captured in an Oct. 7, 2023, attack in southern Israel that sparked a war in which militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly were civilians and kidnapped approximately 250 people. The Israeli military has announced the death of hostages in a third attack, but suspects the true number may be about half.

Hamas has demanded the release of scores of Palestinian prisoners, including senior militants convicted of plotting attacks that killed civilians. Israel is reluctant to release such prisoners, especially since slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds of the 2023 attacks, was a prisoner released under such an agreement.

Lists were exchanged, with Israel demanding more information about which hostages were still alive to ensure they were rescued first. Hamas said at least a brief truce was needed to determine the status of the hostages, who are being held by different groups in scattered, undisclosed locations.

Upcoming deals require a multi-phase plan. In the first phase, Hamas will release the most vulnerable hostages, Israeli troops will withdraw from some areas, allow some Palestinians to return home, and provide significant humanitarian aid.

In a second step – which will be negotiated in the first step – the remaining living hostages will be released in exchange for a lasting ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Hamas says it will not release the remaining hostages without a guarantee of an end to the war. Israel's offensive has killed more than 46,000 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to local health authorities, which did not disclose how many of the dead were militants.

Hamas may fear that once the hostages are released and the militants no longer have the most valuable bargaining chip, Israel will resume its offensive and intensify its efforts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to do just that. He said Israel would not end the war until it destroyed Hamas's military and governance capabilities and ensured Palestinian militant groups no longer posed a threat.

The lack of trust goes both ways: Israelis fear Hamas will drag out the second phase of negotiations, extending the ceasefire indefinitely while hostages are stranded.

Negotiations nearly collapsed last summer when Netanyahu said Israel would maintain a persistent presence in the Philadelphia Corridor, a stretch of land along Gaza's border with Egypt.

Israel says Hamas has long smuggled weapons into Gaza through tunnels under the corridor and must control the area to prevent Hamas from rebuilding. Egypt, the main mediator, says it blocked the tunnel years ago and opposes any Israeli presence on the Gaza side of its border.

Israel has also demanded a mechanism to check people returning to their homes in northern Gaza, where about a million people fled when Israel ordered evacuations at the start of the war. Their return is a key demand of Hamas, the details of which are still being worked out.

Israel says people returning to the north should be searched for weapons. That would likely require an Israeli presence in the so-called Nezarim Corridor, a stretch of closed roads and military installations stretching from the border to the sea south of Gaza City.

Palestinians oppose any permanent Israeli occupation, although Hamas has reportedly shown flexibility on the Israeli withdrawal timetable.

Israel says Hamas can never rule Gaza again but has not approved a realistic plan to form an alternative government. With no internal rivals, Hamas was able to quickly regroup in the wake of Israeli actions, even in the worst-hit areas, and still control much of its territory.

The Biden administration has long pushed for a grand deal in which a reformed Palestinian Authority would govern post-war Gaza with the support of Arab and Muslim countries including Saudi Arabia, which would also take steps to build ties with Israel a historic step.

But Arab and Muslim leaders say they would sign off on such a plan only if it leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem and Gaza, and territories captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war .

The Israeli government opposes Palestinian statehood and excludes the Palestinian Authority from playing any role in Gaza. Netanyahu said Israel would maintain open security controls while delegating governance to politically independent Palestinians. But no one seems to be volunteering, and Hamas has threatened anyone who cooperates with Israel in administering the territory.

However, Hamas has expressed a willingness to hand over control of Gaza to other Palestinians. Late last year it agreed to an Egyptian-brokered plan for a group of independents to run the territory with the support of the Palestinian Authority, but the Palestinian Authority has not yet accepted the proposal.

Hamas also demands that Israel and Egypt lift the blockade imposed after taking power in 2007, which experts say is necessary to rebuild Gaza.

However, lifting the blockade would allow Hamas to achieve a major victory and ultimately rebuild its military capabilities. This is another long shot for Israel.

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